The result of Alabama’s game with Tennessee could echo far beyond one Saturday in October.
That matchup is already the kind of SEC showdown that tends to shape the league race, and in the 2026 edition it may wind up carrying real weight in both the conference chase and the push for a College Football Playoff berth. Tennessee gets a lift from the win, while Alabama takes another hit in a season that is beginning to slip.
Georgia still sits in the driver’s seat. Even after a Week 7 loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are listed by ESPN’s FPI with a 46.4% chance to win the SEC. They still have a neutral-site game with Florida next week and a trip to Ole Miss on the schedule, but they remain the clear favorite in the league race.
Before Week 7, Alabama and Texas were the teams lined up with Georgia near the top of both the SEC and CFP conversations. Now both have dropped a second straight game, and both have another conference loss to absorb.
Alabama’s path is especially messy now. The Tide are down to a 12.8% chance to win the SEC and a 48.8% shot at the Playoff.
Their biggest remaining obstacle is a Nov. 7 game at LSU.
Tennessee’s outlook improved simply by avoiding that second loss. The Vols already fell to Texas, but they still have five SEC games left, including home dates with Kentucky and LSU and a road trip to South Carolina this weekend, where they’re a slight underdog. Tennessee is at 9.5% to win the SEC, just behind Ole Miss at 9.7%.
What’s become clear is that Georgia is out front, and then the middle of the SEC race is packed tightly behind it. Six teams are clustered between 4.9% and 12.8% to win the league.
Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are the leading names in that group, but LSU, Texas, and Kentucky are right there too. LSU and Texas have already taken two conference losses, while Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee have only one.
The Playoff picture is getting crowded in the same way. Georgia is the overwhelming favorite at 78.6% to make the field, but five teams are bunched between 38.0% and 48.8% behind the Bulldogs.
Alabama and Tennessee are at the top of that pack, Kentucky has the longest odds, and Texas and Ole Miss sit in the middle. What had looked fairly settled is becoming harder to read by the week.
In Other News...
Alabama Pass Rush Problem Could Follow The Tide Into Texas A&M
The pass rush has become one of the more uncomfortable storylines around Alabama after the Tide managed just one sack in each of their last two games, both losses. Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has pointed to the same issue showing up again and again, with recent opponents getting the ball out quickly enough to blunt pressure before it can turn into a disruption.
Now the challenge appears to be waiting again with Texas A&M, which could bring a similar approach when it meets Alabama. If the Aggies are able to spread the ball around and keep the quarterback moving through reads fast, the Tide will need to find a way to create heat without relying on a rush that has not consistently gotten home lately. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Faces Growing Pressure To Stop This Slide Fast
Alabama heads into its matchup with Texas A&M carrying an unfamiliar weight after consecutive losses, the programs first back-to-back regular-season defeats since 2007. For a team used to setting the tone in the SEC, the timing could hardly be worse, especially with offensive issues starting up front and showing up in the passing game. The Tide have little margin to let the skid linger.
Texas A&M brings its own questions, but the Aggies have at least shown signs of improvement on defense, which only adds to the challenge Alabama is facing. Both teams need a response to steady their SEC standing, and for Alabama the pressure is about more than one result. It is about whether the slide gets stopped now, before it becomes something harder to shake. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Finally Has A Real Opening For AK Dear
AK Dear has spent most of the 2026 season waiting for his chance, and so far it has been a quiet one. The Alabama running back has only two carries for six yards, a number that reflects how limited his role has been since the season began, even after he arrived with the kind of recruiting buzz that made him one of the more intriguing young players on the roster.
Now the path looks a little more open. With EJ Crowell dealing with a knee injury and Alabama struggling to get much going on the ground, Dear could be in line for a bigger workload when the Crimson Tide face Texas A&M. He flashed promise in his debut season, but his usage has dipped this year, and this matchup may finally give Alabama a better look at what he can do with real touches. [Read more 🡒]