Can Oklahoma’s Offense Catch Up to Its Championship-Caliber Defense in Time for Alabama?
Let’s be real: Oklahoma isn’t showing up on many shortlists of national title contenders - and there’s a good reason for that. While the Sooners’ defense has quietly built a case as one of the top units in the country, their offense hasn’t held up its end of the bargain, especially down the stretch.
The numbers tell the story: Oklahoma averaged just 123.8 rushing yards per game this season. For context, that’s barely better than 1999 Florida State - the team with the worst rushing attack of any national champion in the last 90 years.
That kind of imbalance explains why Oklahoma, despite its elite defense, sits behind all but two Group of Five teams in national championship odds, according to FanDuel. The offense ranks just 93rd in the FBS in yards per play (5.4), and outside of a couple of outliers, the passing game hasn’t exactly lit it up either. The only times they hit 8.0 yards per attempt were in the season opener and the finale - and even that final game needed a busted coverage and a true freshman cornerback to spring Isaiah Sategna for a 58-yard go-ahead touchdown in a narrow 17-13 win over a 7-win LSU squad.
Without that play? We might be talking about Oklahoma in the Gator Bowl, not hosting Alabama in a home Playoff game on Friday night.
But here we are. And while the conversation around this matchup has largely centered on Alabama’s résumé and Kalen DeBoer’s name surfacing in coaching rumors, maybe we should be spending more time asking the real question: can Oklahoma’s offense finally get back to looking like itself?
The John Mateer Factor
That question starts - and possibly ends - with quarterback John Mateer.
Mateer hasn’t looked quite right since returning from thumb surgery earlier in the season. He was injured before the Kent State game and rushed back to face Texas.
That return came after a so-called “bye week,” but in reality, it was a whirlwind of surgery, rehab and recovery. Since then, we’ve seen flashes of the early-season version of Mateer - the one who had Heisman odds and powered Oklahoma’s 4-0 start - but those moments have been fleeting.
Now, with a full three weeks of rest heading into the Playoff, there’s a real possibility we see a healthier, sharper version of Mateer. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s not a stretch either. And if he’s anywhere near the player we saw in September, Oklahoma’s ceiling rises dramatically.
We got a glimpse of that version of Mateer against Alabama the first time around. No, it wasn’t a statistical masterpiece, but it was a gritty, controlled performance that helped OU pull off a massive road win.
He didn’t turn the ball over, and his 20-yard touchdown run was a reminder of the dual-threat dynamo we saw early in the year. Add in a dominant defensive showing - including three forced turnovers and relentless pressure despite being without R Mason Thomas - and Oklahoma had the recipe for a signature win.
The Offense Has Been Playing Catch-Up
Since Mateer’s return, though, the offense has been noticeably limited. Accuracy issues, questionable reads (see: that brutal interception late against Tennessee), and a running game that’s struggled to find consistent production outside of the quarterback position have all contributed to the downturn. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle has clearly leaned into a more conservative approach, likely at the direction of Brent Venables, knowing the defense can carry a heavy load.
That strategy has worked - to a point. Oklahoma has made the most of its chunk-play opportunities, often through the electric Isaiah Sategna. But relying on low-percentage deep shots and hoping for defensive breakdowns isn’t a sustainable formula, especially not against Alabama.
The Tide have given up the second-fewest 20-yard passes in the country. They’re disciplined, fast, and physical on the back end. If Oklahoma’s plan is to wait for another busted coverage, they may be in for a long night.
Time to Lean on Mateer’s Legs?
Where Mateer has been most effective post-injury is on designed quarterback runs, especially gap schemes. In games where he’s had at least seven of those runs - Michigan, Tennessee, and Missouri - he’s gone for 75+ rushing yards each time. Even in games where the offense struggled overall, that part of his game remained a weapon.
That Michigan performance stands out. It wasn’t just a win; it was a statement.
Outside of one long touchdown run allowed early in the second half, Oklahoma dominated every phase. Mateer was in full command - decisive, elusive, and accurate.
It was the kind of performance that made you believe Oklahoma could hang with anyone.
If Venables and Arbuckle are looking for a blueprint heading into this Alabama rematch, that’s the one to follow. Not the November win over the Tide, which leaned heavily on a +3 turnover margin and a special teams edge. That version of a win is much harder to replicate.
The Michigan game? That was sustainable football.
What Version of Mateer Will We See?
The challenge now is figuring out how much of that Michigan version of Mateer is still in there. The three-week break might’ve been just what he needed to get his legs back under him - literally and figuratively. If he’s truly healthy, Oklahoma would be wise to open up the playbook and let him go to work.
Yes, there’s risk involved. Mateer has 13 turnover-worthy plays since returning, including six in the Texas game alone.
And yes, giving him more responsibility in the passing game could backfire. But playing it safe with a limited playbook against Alabama might be even riskier.
This is the Playoff. You don’t win these games without taking some swings.
Oklahoma has a defense that can go toe-to-toe with anyone. What it hasn’t had - at least consistently - is an offense that can keep pace. But if Mateer is back to being the guy who opened the season in Heisman conversations, the Sooners become a very different team.
They’re not the favorites. They’re not the media darlings. But they might just be the most dangerous underdog in the field.
Now it’s time to find out if the best version of Oklahoma is ready to show up.