Can Oklahoma’s Offense Rise to the Moment Against Alabama? The Sooners’ CFP Hopes Hinge on It
When the College Football Playoff kicks off this weekend, all eyes will be on the Oklahoma Sooners-not just because they’re back in the CFP for the first time since 2019, but because their offense might be the biggest question mark of the entire first round.
Oklahoma, ranked No. 8, hosts No. 9 Alabama on Friday night (8 p.m.
ET, ABC) in a rematch of their narrow 23-21 win back in November. That victory in Tuscaloosa marked the Sooners’ second straight win over the Crimson Tide, but if they want to make it three in a row-and punch their ticket to the CFP semifinals-they’ll need a much sharper offensive performance than what we’ve seen lately.
A Defense Built for the Moment
Let’s start with what’s working: Oklahoma’s defense. This group is legit.
It’s fast, physical, and opportunistic-everything you want in a playoff-caliber unit. Just ask Alabama.
In that November matchup, the Sooners gave up 406 yards, but they made the Tide one-dimensional. Alabama’s ground game was stifled, managing just 2.4 yards per carry.
Running backs Daniel Hill and Jamarion Miller combined for only 87 yards on 24 carries.
And then there was the game-changing play: an 87-yard pick-six that flipped momentum and ultimately sealed the win. That defense will need to be just as sharp-and maybe even better-this time around.
The challenge? They might not be able to count on much help from the other side of the ball.
The Offense Under the Microscope
Oklahoma’s offense has been stuck in neutral for much of the second half of the season. In nine games against Power Five competition, the Sooners are averaging just under 320 total yards per game-good for 82nd out of 133 FBS teams.
Their 21.8 points per game rank 64th. That’s not the kind of production you typically see from a playoff team, and certainly not from one with championship aspirations.
A big reason for the downturn? Quarterback John Mateer hasn’t looked like himself since suffering a fractured thumb on his throwing hand in late September.
Before the injury, Mateer was electric. In his first four starts, he completed nearly 67.5% of his passes for over 1,200 yards, with 11 total touchdowns and just three picks.
He was also a threat on the ground, averaging nearly 50 rushing yards per game. That version of Mateer looked like a Heisman contender.
Since coming back from surgery, though, it’s been a different story. His completion percentage has dipped to under 59%, and he’s thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (8). His rushing numbers are down too, and the struggles have been especially apparent in his last two starts-he completed less than half of his passes against Missouri and tossed three interceptions against LSU.
If Oklahoma is going to make a deep run, they need the pre-injury version of Mateer to show up. Otherwise, the defense will be carrying more than its fair share of the load.
Alabama’s Offense: Flawed but Dangerous
Alabama enters the game with its own offensive issues, particularly in the run game. The Tide finished their SEC title game loss to Georgia with negative rushing yards-minus-three, to be exact.
On the season, they’re averaging just 116.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 117th in the FBS. That’s not a typo.
But don’t mistake that for a lack of firepower. Quarterback Ty Simpson and the Alabama passing attack can still strike quickly and often.
The Tide have racked up 52 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season, tied for 11th-most in the country. They don’t need to dominate possession or grind out long drives-they just need a few explosive plays to flip the scoreboard.
That’s what makes this matchup so intriguing. If Oklahoma’s defense bends just a little, Alabama has the tools to capitalize. And if the Sooners’ offense can’t keep pace, one busted coverage or tipped pass could be the difference between advancing and heading home.
The Bottom Line
Oklahoma’s defense is ready. It has already proven it can contain Alabama’s attack.
But in the College Football Playoff, defense alone usually isn’t enough. At some point Friday night, the Sooners will need John Mateer to make a throw-or three.
They’ll need a drive that flips momentum. A touchdown that quiets the doubts.
Can Mateer recapture the form he showed in September? That’s the million-dollar question heading into the weekend. And it might just decide whether Oklahoma’s season ends in celebration-or heartbreak.