Alabama’s margin for error is gone, at least in Paul Finebaum’s view.
With the Crimson Tide heading to LSU for a huge road game Saturday, Finebaum said the stakes are simple: lose, and the playoff dream is basically over.
“If Alabama loses this game, forget it,” Finebaum said of the Crimson Tide ahead of its critical road game at LSU this Saturday.
His reasoning starts with last year’s path and why it no longer applies. Alabama backed into the College Football Playoff with three losses a season ago, but Finebaum said that route is shut down now because of the schedule and the weakness of the non-conference slate.
“Remember, they got in last year with three losses, their third loss being the SEC Championship Game. That’s not going to happen this year because their non-conference is very poor.
Their best win there is Florida State. I think we know what happened there this week.”
That Florida State reference matters because the Seminoles fired head coach Mike Norvell, which Finebaum suggested could undercut the value of Alabama’s win over them when the playoff committee starts comparing résumés.
He also pointed to Kentucky as another key piece in Alabama’s case. The Tide beat the Wildcats 45-17 on the road, and Kentucky is currently sitting atop the SEC standings.
“They do have a win over Kentucky, so they will desperately need Kentucky to keep winning,” Finebaum added of the Tide.
That result could become even more valuable if Kentucky beats Tennessee this Saturday. A Wildcat win in Knoxville would strengthen Alabama’s road victory in Lexington, while a loss would make that earlier win look less impressive.
The same kind of pressure is hanging over LSU, though Finebaum said the Tigers have a little more room to work with.
“LSU has a better path because of the schedule,” Finebaum said.
“They’ll have Texas next week, a team that could be in trouble or could be looking good, and later in the year they go to Tennessee, which could be a playoff team.
“LSU has a narrow path [with a loss], Alabama has no path [with a loss].”
LSU’s own resume includes losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky, both ranked, and the Tigers face another major test against Alabama this week. However Saturday plays out, the result will shape the playoff picture in a big way.
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Alabama Defense Is Betting On One Edge Against LSU
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That approach matters even more with LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt coming in after throwing eight interceptions in six games. Alabama has already shown one area where it can change games, leading the SEC in interceptions alongside Kentucky, and Wommack will be counting on that ball-hawking edge to make up for the lack of consistent edge production. [Read more 🡒]