Week 7 shook up the college football board in a big way, and the ripple effects are already easy to see. Top-10 teams fell, Georgia, Indiana and Notre Dame each took their first loss, and Miami had to sweat before getting past Florida State. With the calendar moving toward the final stretch, these results are going to matter a lot when the College Football Playoff picture comes into focus in six weeks.
Here are five Week 7 takeaways I’m buying or selling right now.
Upsets are back
The underdog has been barking again after a quiet start to the 2026 regular season, when the G6 market was getting priced wrong and favorites were cashing in too often. That has changed over the last two weeks.
Underdogs have won outright in more than 30% of games in back-to-back weeks. The weekly numbers tell the story:
Week 1: 13.7%
Week 2: 20.4%
Week 3: 14%
Week 4: 17.2%
Week 5: 26.8%
Week 6: 32.8%
Week 7: 32.2%
One particular type of dog has done most of the damage. Teams priced between +200 and +400 in P4 games are winning 40% of the time, even though their implied win rate from the money line sits at 26%. That’s a big gap.
It may just be a small-sample surge, but it’s notable. In 2025, that same underdog group was about 6% worse than its implied price. This week’s examples included Auburn against LSU, Houston against Utah and Michigan against Indiana.
Tennessee looks like a CFP bet
Tennessee’s win over Alabama told me enough. The final score actually made the Vols’ performance look a little closer than it really was.
The quarterback situation was the biggest issue early in the season, but George MacIntyre has at least stabilized things. He hasn’t been spectacular in his first two starts, but he hasn’t been a problem either.
If Auburn is included, MacIntyre is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. That’s solidly in the middle - better than Kenny Minchey and LaNorris Sellers over the full season, for instance.
Everything around him is in good shape. Tennessee ranks 15th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed, per Game on Paper, and the offense sits in the 96th percentile in EPA per rush.
Josh Heupel doesn’t need fireworks from MacIntyre. He just needs competent quarterback play and the defense and run game can handle the rest.
The schedule also gives Tennessee a path. Kentucky and Vanderbilt are next, and if those go as expected, the Vols would need to win two of three against South Carolina, Texas A&M and LSU. That’s a realistic ask.
Notre Dame’s BYU loss wasn’t a fluke
I missed on this one. I expected Notre Dame to control the game, but BYU matched the Fighting Irish pretty much from snap to snap and handled the high-leverage moments better.
Game on Paper’s EPA-per-play numbers had both offenses in the 57th percentile. BYU had a slight edge in success rate and was stronger on the ground, while Notre Dame was a bit more efficient through the air on dropbacks.
The separator came on third down. BYU converted 67% of its chances, while Notre Dame managed 42%. The Irish tried to offset that by going 4-for-4 on fourth down, but it wasn’t enough.
The result has real playoff consequences. BYU now has to be viewed as a likely College Football Playoff team even if it gets in as an at-large. Beating Notre Dame, if the Cougars finish 10-2 or 11-1, is exactly the kind of win the committee will notice.
Ohio State may be in trouble if Julian Sayin misses time
Ohio State’s win over Indiana may end up being the game that saves the season, especially if Julian Sayin is sidelined for weeks.
Sayin hasn’t been flawless against top defenses in his career, but against most opponents he’s been almost automatic. This season he owns a 10.5% completion percentage over expected, which ranks third nationally among P4 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts.
When he left against Indiana with an upper body injury, the Buckeyes turned to freshman Luke Fahey. Ohio State was trying to drain clock, so Fahey only attempted two passes, both on third-and-long, and neither was completed.
The sample on Fahey is tiny, but it’s not exactly comforting. He came into Saturday with 11 career pass attempts and two interceptions, and his only previous action came against Ball State and Kent State aside from the Indiana game.
That becomes a much bigger issue with USC on deck in Week 9. Fahey, a 3-star prospect in the class of 2026, could also be asked to navigate Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan depending on Sayin’s timeline. He does have Jeremiah Smith and a strong offensive line behind him, but dropping a true freshman into that stretch could produce some strange results for the Buckeyes.
Georgia is still a title-caliber team
I’m not backing off Georgia after the Auburn loss. In my view, the Bulldogs were unlucky to lose that game.
The advanced numbers back that up. Georgia outplayed Auburn in the areas that usually travel, including success rate, and outgained the Tigers by nearly 2 yards per play despite the defeat.
Auburn’s edge came through turnover fortune. The Tigers recovered two of the game’s three fumbles and intercepted Gunner Stockton twice. Game on Paper credited Auburn’s plus-3 turnover margin with 10.3 points of value in a game it won by 3.
Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy metric painted an even clearer picture: Auburn had about a 3% chance to win based on the box score stats. That makes it one of the least likely outcomes of the 2026 season so far.
The bigger point is that Georgia’s overall profile still looks elite. The Bulldogs are ninth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play on offense, and the defense has been strong in most areas outside explosive pass play rate.
Georgia could still drop another game, but the most likely outcome is an 11-1 or 10-2 finish and another trip to the College Football Playoff. And compared with its last two playoff runs, this version of Georgia feels more dangerous as a true title contender because of the explosiveness on offense.
In Other News...
Tennessee Just Made Alabama's Misery Impossible To Ignore
For more than a decade, Alabama treated the Third Saturday in October like a familiar checkpoint, but the trip to Knoxville has turned into something else entirely. The Crimson Tide have now lost three straight to Tennessee there after winning 15 in a row from 2007 through 2021, and the latest setback only sharpened the sense that this rivalry has shifted in a way Alabama fans never expected.
The reaction on The Paul Finebaum Show made that frustration plain, with callers unloading on the coaching staff and the teams overall edge. Voices like Legend and Handsome Joe captured the mood around the program, where pride in the standard Alabama used to set is colliding with a stretch of losses that has become impossible to shrug off. [Read more 🡒]
Alabamas Ugly Tennessee Loss Just Got Even More Bizarre
The strangest footnote from Alabamas loss in Knoxville did not come from the field at all. A 20-year-old man from Morristown, Blake Bible, was arrested and charged with theft of property after allegedly dressing as a security guard to get into Tennessees game against Alabama, turning an already ugly afternoon for the Crimson Tide into something even harder to believe.
On the field, Tennessee handled the moment with far more composure, winning 26-10 behind DeSean Bishops 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Josh Heupel praised his defense afterward, while Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell pointed to a lack of effective game planning, a harsh assessment for a Tide team that left with more questions than answers and now a bizarre story to go with them. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Pass Rush Problem Could Follow The Tide Into Texas A&M
Alabamas pass rush has become a real concern at the wrong time, with the Tide managing only one sack in each of their last two games, both ending in losses. Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack pointed to the way recent opponents have gotten the ball out quickly, limiting opportunities for the front to get home and putting more pressure on the rest of the defense to hold up in coverage.
That challenge could be waiting again in College Station, where Texas A&M is expected to lean on a similar quick-strike approach. For Alabama, the question is not just whether it can generate more disruption, but whether it can do it fast enough to keep an offense that spreads the ball around from settling into a rhythm. [Read more 🡒]