Ole Miss enters Week 9 with its College Football Playoff path looking a lot tighter than it did a few weeks ago, and Saturday’s meeting with Auburn now carries a little extra edge. The Rebels are still sitting on quality wins, but losses to Florida and Texas have left their résumé hanging by a thread ahead of a tough closing stretch that includes No. 3 Georgia in Week 10.
Even with that pressure building, the betting market is still giving Ole Miss plenty of respect at home. The Rebels are favored by nearly two touchdowns, but the bigger question is whether they can cover that kind of number without one of their biggest weapons. Star running back Kewan Lacy has been ruled out with a shoulder injury, and that changes the feel of this matchup in a hurry.
Trinidad Chambliss will still be the centerpiece for Ole Miss. His Heisman stock took another hit after the loss to Texas, when he threw three interceptions and dropped all the way to +3000 after entering Week 8 at +650. The numbers still show a quarterback producing at a high level overall: he has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,926 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also scoring six times on the ground.
The problem is that those numbers no longer stack up with the top names in the Heisman race, and he’ll have to deal with an Auburn defense that sits 85th in the country in success rate in 2026. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has been one of the more efficient offenses around, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA/Play and inside the top 30 in success rate.
Auburn comes in at 4-3, but this team isn’t easy to dismiss. Byrum Brown and Co. own a signature win over Georgia, which gives the Tigers a danger factor even if the record doesn’t jump off the page. They did come back down to earth in Week 8, though, losing by 21 to LSU, the same LSU team Ole Miss beat earlier this season.
The Tigers’ best path here may be to lean on the run game. Auburn has been stronger on the ground this season, ranking 36th in EPA/Rush and 57th in run play success rate. That’s the side of the ball that could help them stay in the game, especially with Ole Miss missing Lacy.
That absence matters more because the Rebels have already shown a vulnerability when he’s not on the field. Ole Miss lost the one game Lacy missed, falling to Florida by multiple touchdowns.
The Rebels’ defense also leaves the door open a bit. Ole Miss ranks 97th in EPA/Rush on that side of the ball, which was part of the story in the Florida loss. Auburn’s overall offense hasn’t been overwhelming, but it does have enough structure to make this interesting if the game turns into a grind.
Auburn’s defense should help keep things from getting away. The Tigers rank 41st nationally in adjusted EPA/Play on defense and 60th in EPA/Pass, which gives them a fighting chance to make life harder on Chambliss without Lacy as a backfield threat.
And Auburn has already shown it can hang around in league play. Its only SEC loss by more than 10 points came in a five-point defeat against Florida and a 10-point loss to Tennessee. That’s part of why the current line feels a bit too inflated with Lacy sidelined.
Still, this doesn’t look like an Auburn upset waiting to happen, especially on the road. But it does look like a game the Tigers can keep closer than the spread suggests.
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