After Saturday’s results, Alabama’s path back to Atlanta is still alive - and still messy.
The Tide knocked off LSU, but the SEC race tightened around them anyway. Georgia rolled past Ole Miss, Tennessee handled Kentucky and Texas won at Missouri, leaving the league with four teams carrying two conference losses and Georgia sitting alone with one.
For Alabama, the cleanest route is straightforward enough: win out against Vanderbilt and Auburn. If Georgia also takes care of Missouri and South Carolina, the Bulldogs would land in the SEC championship game at 8-1 in league play. That would leave Alabama sorting through a tiebreaker with Texas, Tennessee and Kentucky.
There’s no single answer yet, and that’s the whole point. Depending on how the final three weeks shake out, Alabama could wind up in Atlanta - or get squeezed out by the math.
If Alabama, Tennessee, Texas and Kentucky all finish tied for second at 6-2, the result is still undetermined, though Alabama would most likely get the nod. The reason is simple: the four teams don’t all play each other, and no one team in that group beat or lost to all the others.
In that case, the tiebreaker would eventually go to conference opponents’ winning percentage, which will be shaped by the rest of the SEC slate over the final three weeks. Right now, Alabama has the edge there.
The same basic setup applies if Alabama, Tennessee and Texas all end up tied at 6-2. That one would also be pushed to conference opponents’ winning percentage, and Alabama currently owns that advantage.
But there are combinations that work against the Tide.
If Alabama, Texas and Kentucky all finish tied at 6-2, Texas would get the spot. That scenario comes down to record against common opponents.
Texas beat Tennessee, and under this setup would also have beaten LSU and Texas A&M. Alabama and Kentucky both lost to Tennessee while beating LSU and Texas A&M, giving Texas the tiebreaker 3-0 to 2-1.
If Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are the three teams tied at 6-2, Tennessee advances. The Volunteers beat both Alabama and Kentucky, so they win the tiebreaker outright.
A two-team tie with Tennessee also goes Tennessee’s way. The Volunteers beat Alabama head-to-head.
A two-team tie with Texas sends the Longhorns through as well. That tiebreaker would move to common conference opponents, and Texas would have the better mark.
Texas beat Tennessee and Mississippi State, and would have beaten LSU and Texas A&M in this setup. Alabama lost to Tennessee but beat Mississippi State, LSU and Texas A&M, leaving Texas ahead 4-0 to 3-1.
Alabama does win a straight two-team tie with Kentucky. The Tide beat the Wildcats head-to-head.
Georgia dropping a second conference game - to Missouri or South Carolina - would blow the whole thing wide open and create a different tiebreaker path.
And there’s still a chance Alabama could reach the SEC championship game even with a 6-3 league record, which would include a loss to Vanderbilt or Auburn. But that would require several other results to break the Tide’s way.
In Other News...
LSU Star Took A Shot At Alabama Even After The Loss
Alabamas 31-13 win over LSU was built in the second half, when the Crimson Tide put together three touchdown drives and steadily pulled away from a game that had been tighter earlier on. The result pushed Alabama to 7-2 and left LSU at 6-3, a setback that did more than just dent the Tigers record.
Afterward, LSU safety Ty Benefield pointed the blame inward, saying the loss came down to his own teams mistakes rather than anything Alabamas offense did. It was the kind of postgame assessment that can linger, especially with LSUs playoff hopes now taking a hit and Alabama continuing to build momentum down the stretch. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama's Playoff Hopes Were Slipping Until One Drive Changed Everything
Alabamas playoff push had started to look shaky when LSU nudged ahead late in the third quarter, but the Tide steadied themselves just in time to keep the conversation alive. Kalen DeBoers team leaned into the kind of simple, disciplined football he has stressed all season, staying focused and executing when the game tightened up.
One drive flipped the feel of the night, sparked by Rico Scotts 57-yard reception and finished with a touchdown pass from Keelon Russell to Josh Ford. Ryan Coleman-Williams also made his presence felt in his return from injury, giving Alabama another needed piece as it found a way to answer LSU and protect its postseason hopes. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Fans Got Another Reason To Enjoy Lane Kiffins Misery
Lane Kiffins latest trip through Tuscaloosa ended the same way so many of the others have, with Alabama leaving him looking for answers. LSUs loss to the Crimson Tide pushed Kiffin to 0-6 against Alabama in his coaching career, and it came in a game where the Tide got enough from quarterback Keelon Russell to keep control even after Russell dealt with an injury. For Alabama fans, it was another satisfying chapter in a long-running storyline that has rarely gone their way when Kiffin is on the opposing sideline.
The biggest moment came late, when Kiffins fourth-and-10 decision turned into a sack and effectively shut the door on LSUs chances. It was the kind of call that invites second-guessing immediately, especially in a game already tilted by Alabamas steadier execution. For the Tide, the win was about more than just another conference result. It was also another reminder that Kiffins frustration against Alabama continues to pile up, one loss at a time. [Read more 🡒]