Alabama’s margin for error is shrinking fast, and Paul Finebaum thinks the next stop on the schedule may decide everything.
On ESPN’s “First Take” Monday, Finebaum said the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff path runs directly through a Nov. 7 trip to LSU, warning that another loss in Baton Rouge would end any realistic shot at the field. His warning came two days after No. 13 Alabama fell 26-10 at Tennessee, suffering back-to-back regular-season losses for the first time since 2007.
“Right now, they’re looking at the abyss,” Finebaum said.
He made clear where he believes the danger lies. “They have to go to LSU,” Finebaum said.
“Now, LSU has been all over the place this year, but Alabama does not seem to play that well on the road. I know they beat Mississippi State, but Kamario Taylor was out of that game. ...
If they drop that game, they’re done. They’re not getting in the playoff.”
Taylor started for Mississippi State on Oct. 3 in Starkville, though the sophomore quarterback was limited by an ankle injury and exited early in the fourth quarter of Alabama’s 56-23 win. The Tide’s other road victory came at Kentucky, where they were trailing 17-13 at halftime before ripping off 32 unanswered points in a 45-17 finish.
LSU, meanwhile, is 5-2 under Lane Kiffin and moved up to No. 18 in the AP Top 25 after a 31-0 win over Mississippi State. Finebaum had already pointed to this matchup back in August, saying Kiffin would get revenge on Nov. 7 and hand Alabama its third defeat.
The criticism around Alabama has also landed on offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, even as Kalen DeBoer defended him this week. DeBoer called Grubb “a great play-caller,” but Finebaum said the fan base has already turned on him.
“And the fans right now are not so much after DeBoer, they’re after Ryan Grubb, the offensive coordinator who called a miserable game Saturday,” Finebaum said. “They just got punked against Tennessee, a team that had struggled at times this year.”
That Tennessee loss looked nothing like the Alabama offense that had rolled through the first month of the season. Through five weeks, the Tide were averaging 49.6 points per game. In Knoxville, they were held to 10 points and 201 total yards, and they turned the ball over four times while DeSean Bishop ran for 159 yards for Tennessee.
Grubb didn’t hide from the blowback. “It’s embarrassing,” Grubb said. “If I was a fan or a supporter, I’d be pissed off too.”
Finebaum also connected the Tennessee defeat back to Alabama’s 20-17 home loss to Georgia on Oct. 10, saying the momentum from that earlier win had already evaporated.
“DeBoer threw away all the goodwill he got a week ago in that loss to Georgia, but Alabama is really in trouble at the moment,” he said.
Alabama is 5-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, and the schedule now gives them a chance to steady things. The Tide host Texas A&M on Saturday, then have an open date before that pivotal trip to Baton Rouge.
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