The good news for Alabama is that the Crimson Tide’s path has gotten a lot cleaner after the 31-13 win over LSU. At No.
3, Kalen DeBoer’s team is sitting in a spot where a first-round bye is very much on the table. The bad news is that college football still has a way of turning “very much on the table” into chaos in a hurry.
So this week’s rooting guide is built for both realities. If Alabama keeps winning, these are the results that help the Tide’s seeding. If the Tide slips again, these are the games that can wipe out bubble competition and keep the playoff picture from getting ugly.
The SEC Championship Game is part of the equation too. This guide assumes Alabama wants Atlanta, which really shouldn’t be a controversial position.
Georgia is the big one. Alabama wants the Bulldogs to make another statement, because a likely rematch in the SEC Championship Game could give the Crimson Tide a shot at revenge and, in the right setup, a path to the No. 1 overall seed.
The catch is obvious: if that happens, Texas would very likely jump into Alabama’s top-four spot and push the Tide into the opening round. Alabama would also lose a top-25 win if LSU falls out of the rankings with a fourth loss, so the alternative is a much cleaner résumé with three top-25 wins and Texas out of the picture.
That game matters a lot.
Kentucky is another easy one. Alabama needs the Wildcats to steady themselves so that the 45-17 road win keeps looking good. If Kentucky drops a second straight game, it falls out of serious playoff contention and drags down the value of that September win.
Tennessee is a different kind of problem for Alabama. The Volunteers are the biggest obstacle to the Tide reaching the SEC Championship Game, so Alabama can live with a second-loss Tennessee team taking a third defeat, especially against a team Alabama has already beaten. Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s offense don’t look likely to win in College Station, but if they do, it would be a major boost for Alabama.
South Carolina is another team Alabama wants to keep moving. Shane Beamer on the road against a team he has no business losing to?
That’s the kind of spot Alabama needs to go right. The Gamecocks should handle Arkansas, but this one has the feel of a game that could get strange.
Florida State has become one of the more interesting watch items on the board. The Seminoles just beat Boston College for their first road win in two years after firing Mike Norvell, and now they can actually become a quality win.
Pittsburgh has been solid all season and spent time in the Top 25, so a Florida State win would push the Seminoles to the brink of bowl eligibility with NC State next and then, ideally, Florida to close the year. That would leave Florida State at 7-5 with a quality SEC win.
Miami is another team Alabama has to keep an eye on. The Hurricanes could still jump Alabama if they run the table and beat a one-loss Wake Forest team in the ACC Championship Game. A loss here would shut that door and effectively end the ACC’s chances of getting two bids.
Out West, Arizona is one of the more important games on the board. The Wildcats’ only losses are to BYU and Texas Tech, and neither was a blowout.
If Arizona hands Utah its first loss of the season, the Wildcats suddenly own one of the more interesting two-loss résumés in the country. For Alabama, the bigger piece is that the Crimson Tide would move up to No.
- Utah is vulnerable enough that this one deserves close attention.
There’s also a UCLA game that matters for the same reason: if the perfect season gets derailed, Alabama would not have to worry about looking over its shoulder.
If Alabama drops a third game - to Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, or Auburn - then the board gets a lot messier, and a different set of results starts to matter. Wake Forest is one of those teams.
The Demon Deacons haven’t played a very difficult schedule, but the question becomes which team the committee would favor. Alabama saw a version of that play out in 2024, when the committee picked SMU over the Crimson Tide.
This year’s SMU team is good enough to pull off another upset.
Back in the Big 12, there’s plenty more to track. Texas Tech is one of the key names, and a loss would knock the Red Raiders out of at-large contention. Everyone on the bubble should be pulling for Drew Mestemaker and company.
Houston is still alive too. The Cougars have been one of the quieter two-loss teams around, but there’s probably an at-large spot available if they finish strong.
Baylor’s final stretch is brutal: BYU, Texas Tech, then Houston. If the Bears win all three with an interim head coach, that would be hard to ignore.
Maybe DJ Lagway has turned a corner, too.
BYU remains a fascinating case. The Cougars likely won’t reach the Big 12 Championship Game, which means they could win out and still earn an at-large bid. The conference’s dream scenario is a three-bid Big 12, and that would be a nightmare for the rest of the bubble.
The Big Ten is shaping up as a two-bid league right now, but USC beating Indiana could blow that open. That would put the Hoosiers in position for an at-large spot as a two-loss team that doesn’t play in the conference championship game.
Iowa still hasn’t done much to impress, and the Hawkeyes don’t have much left on the schedule to change that. They probably need chaos ahead of them or an Indiana loss to make the championship game and lock up an automatic bid. Losing to Purdue would end that conversation.
Northwestern and Michigan are already out of the Big Ten championship race with three conference losses. Ohio State and Oregon are still in it, since both have only one out-of-conference loss.
In Other News...
Alabama Faces An Uncomfortable Vanderbilt Warning In Latest Week 11 Preview
A week 11 preview built around a video-game simulation is hardly a substitute for the real thing, but it can still offer a useful snapshot of how tricky Alabamas trip to Nashville could be. Roll Tide Wire ran EA Sports College Football 27 on the upcoming 2026 matchup with Vanderbilt, and the result was not the kind of runaway some Crimson Tide fans might expect. Instead, the simulation pointed to a tight, tense game at FirstBank Stadium, with Alabama edging out a 26-20 win.
What makes the forecast worth noting is the way it framed the margin for error. The simulated finish included an interception on the final play, a reminder that even a matchup Alabama is supposed to control can turn uncomfortable late if Vanderbilt hangs around. The individual performances in the game also suggested a contest that would demand attention deep into the fourth quarter, which is exactly the sort of warning that tends to linger when a road game in the SEC starts looking more competitive than expected. [Read more 🡒]
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For Alabama, the worry is not about whether Coleman-Williams can flash big-time ability, but whether he can string together enough production and durability to hold onto the kind of draft status that once seemed within reach. He has posted 25 catches for 429 yards and four touchdowns in seven games this season, solid numbers, yet not quite the steady climb that would calm NFL teams or quiet the questions surrounding his stock. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Still Has One Rival That Could Wreck Its Playoff Path
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It is the kind of late-season test that can reshape the conversation around a contender in a hurry, especially when other top teams like Georgia, Utah and UCLA are also navigating their own dangerous stretches. Alabamas margin for error remains thin, and this one opponent stands out as the most obvious threat to turning a strong season into a messy race for positioning. [Read more 🡒]