Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff may have taken a hit with back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee, but USA TODAY Sports still sees the Crimson Tide right in the thick of the bracket race.
That view comes after Alabama’s 31-20 win over Texas A&M at Bryant-Denny Stadium, a result that snapped the skid without fully changing the playoff conversation. In USA TODAY’s latest projections entering Week 9, college football analyst Erick Smith has Alabama sitting as the No. 9 seed and heading to Oxford to face No. 8 Ole Miss in a first-round matchup at Vaught Hemingway Stadium.
Ole Miss, which is 5-2 and 3-2 in the SEC, came up short against Texas in Week 7, falling 34-27 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
The bigger idea behind Smith’s projection is even more striking: he sees a realistic path for multiple three-loss teams to reach the playoff in 2026. That’s a product, he wrote, of “increased parity among teams, the expansion of conference play and imperfect scheduling,” and it would be happening a year before the 24-team format arrives next season.
Week 8 only added to the chaos. Three top-10 teams lost, including top-five programs BYU and Texas Tech. That came on the heels of a wild Week 7, when five of the top seven teams in the AP Top 25 were beaten.
Smith laid out the numbers behind the idea, pointing to how crowded the major-conference picture could become. He wrote:
"With many of the teams inside the US LBM Coaches Poll scheduled to face each other in the next five weeks, it's mathematically hard to arrive at a scenario where there wont be a three-loss teams in the field. Here's some of that math.
The Big Ten looks to get three teams at best. The Big 12 will be fortunate to get two.
The ACC likely only get multiple teams without a Miami loss in the conference title game. There will be one Group of Six team.
And probably Notre Dame. That's a total of eight.
"That leaves four teams for the SEC. But which ones?
Only Georgia and Kentucky have one overall loss. The Bulldogs still have to face two-loss teams Florida, Missouri and Mississippi.
The Wildcats will play two-loss Tennessee and also Florida and Missouri. LSU and Alabama meet (on Nov.
7). The Tigers also face Texas and Tennessee.
Texas also plays Missouri. The Crimson Tide and Mississippi are the only two-loss team that faces just one playoff contender down the stretch."
For Alabama, the schedule still has several big decisions ahead. The Crimson Tide are 6-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC, and their next major test is a trip to Baton Rouge to face No.
13 LSU on Nov. 7.
Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC.
Alabama’s remaining 2026 schedule includes a road game at Vanderbilt on Nov. 14, a home matchup with Chattanooga on Nov. 21, and the Iron Bowl against Auburn on Nov. 28.
The Tide opened the season with wins over East Carolina, Kentucky, Florida State, South Carolina and Mississippi State before falling to Georgia and Tennessee, then rebounding against Texas A&M.
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The encouraging part for Alabama is what has happened coming out of bye weeks under DeBoer. The Tide have won all four of those games and done so by comfortable margins, a useful trend to lean on as they head into a matchup that should carry real College Football Playoff weight. LSU, coached by Lane Kiffin, will bring plenty of attention and pressure with it, and Alabama's ability to reset this week could matter as much as anything else in what comes next. [Read more 🡒]