Alabama doesn’t appear to be in must-win territory just yet, even with the College Football Playoff picture tightening up.
The old rule of thumb says a 9-3 team is done for in the 12-team format, and that’s been true through the first two seasons. But this year’s landscape looks different enough to at least make that assumption wobble a little. With so much parity and so many teams carrying flaws, Alabama could still have a path even if it drops another game.
The numbers around the sport tell the story. Heading into the final week of October, only three FBS teams are unbeaten: Miami, Utah and UCLA.
CBS Sports Research noted the last time that happened was 1977. In the SEC, only Georgia and Kentucky have one loss apiece.
Every other league team has at least two, and Alabama stands as the highest-ranked two-loss team in the latest AP poll at No. 10.
That ranking doesn’t settle anything by itself. But it does show how crowded the field has become.
ESPN’s playoff predictor, for what it’s worth - and it is probably worth something, given ESPN’s role as the broadcast partner of the College Football Playoff - gives Alabama a 63% chance to reach the field as of Sunday. That places the Crimson Tide sixth in the model, behind Miami at 97%, Ohio State at 91%, Indiana at 89%, Notre Dame at 83% and Georgia at 80%.
And if Alabama does take another loss, the situation is not automatically fatal. According to the predictor, if the Crimson Tide loses to LSU but beats Vanderbilt and Auburn, its playoff chances sit at 51%.
If it loses to Vanderbilt but handles LSU and Auburn, the number rises to 60%. If Auburn is the loss and Alabama beats LSU and Vanderbilt, the predictor gives it a 56% chance.
Those figures are based on Alabama not reaching the SEC championship game.
There’s plenty still to be decided over the next couple of weeks, and those odds will shift. But the key point is clear: a third loss does not necessarily knock Alabama out.
Still, the Crimson Tide would be far better off avoiding the suspense altogether. Leaving a season in the hands of a coin flip is no way to live.
In Other News...
Alabama's Late Surge Revealed Something Bigger About This Offense
For most of the afternoon against Texas A&M, Alabama looked like a team searching for answers as much as one trying to impose its will. The Aggies stayed close long enough to make the game feel unsettled, even as the underlying numbers pointed toward an Alabama edge in efficiency and big-play potential. What stood out most was not just the final margin, but the way the Tide's offense kept working through a running game that never fully settled in until later.
Then came the fourth quarter, when Alabama's offense finally found a different gear and turned a competitive game into a more comfortable finish. The swing raised plenty of questions about what changed, from adjustments up front to how the staff may have tweaked the plan after some early struggles on the ground. However it happened, the late surge suggested something bigger than a single-game rally, because it hinted at an offense still discovering how dangerous it can be once the pieces start clicking. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama May Have Spotted An In-State Lineman Before Everyone Else
Alabama has already dipped into its 2027 offensive line board with a familiar kind of target for the Crimson Tide: an in-state prospect who may be more projection than polish right now. Xavier Endicott, a 6-foot-4, 280-pound lineman from Oxford, has committed to Alabama shortly after the program extended him a scholarship, and the early return suggests the staff saw enough size and athletic ability to move quickly.
Endicott is still unranked on the major recruiting sites, which only adds to the intrigue around how fast his recruitment came together. He also becomes part of a small but notable in-state foundation in the class, joining Stafford Willis as Alabama looks to stockpile offensive line talent early and identify potential before the rest of the country catches on. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Heads Into LSU Still Sorting Out Two Key Availability Concerns
Alabama kept rolling with a 31-20 win over Texas A&M even while dealing with several starters who were unavailable because of injuries and a suspension. The Crimson Tide have shown enough depth to keep winning through the absences, but the latest availability questions are still hanging over a stretch of the season that is only getting tougher from here.
Ahead of the LSU matchup, Kalen DeBoer gave updates on injured players Ryan Coleman-Williams and William Sanders, two names Alabama is still monitoring closely as it tries to get closer to full strength. The situation comes with the added backdrop of defensive back Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. being suspended indefinitely for a team rules violation after legal charges, a complication that has left Alabama sorting through both discipline and health issues at the same time. [Read more 🡒]