The College Football Playoff picture got a lot messier after USC knocked off Ohio State, and the latest bracket projection reflects just how much movement came out of a chaotic final weekend in October.
At the top, Georgia still sits at No. 1 in the projection and remains the favorite to win the SEC after rolling past Florida. The Bulldogs still have a major test ahead, though, with a road trip to Ole Miss next Saturday likely to tell us plenty more.
The projected ACC champion also stayed unbeaten with a win at North Carolina, but there are real questions about whether that defense can keep this run going. The projection still has that team finishing perfect, though the committee could still prefer a one-loss SEC champion.
Utah kept its grip on the Big 12 race by piling up 42 first-half points at Cincinnati and cruising to another win. The Utes are still in first place, but that spot will be under heavy pressure when they face one-loss rival BYU in the Holy War.
The biggest shakeup came in the Big Ten. After Ohio State’s loss to USC, Indiana moved into the projected conference title spot, even though the Hoosiers needed overtime to get past Minnesota and their offense is still a work in progress.
The Wildcats are projected to reach the SEC championship game before falling to Georgia, which would still be enough to get them into the playoff. For Will Stein in his first season, that would be a strong result.
Ole Miss was idle this week, but its position improved thanks to wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and even the loss to Kentucky looks better in the current bracket. The Rebels’ next test comes against Alabama, which should clarify things quickly.
UCLA remains unbeaten and could still finish the regular season without a loss, but the projection has the Bruins dropping the Big Ten championship game to Indiana.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is no longer projected to win the Big Ten. The Buckeyes fell from that spot to an at-large berth after the USC loss exposed what the projection calls real structural issues on the roster. It wasn’t just the quarterback change, either; the defense also looked out of sorts against the Trojans.
Texas Tech is back in the Big 12 title game projection after a key win over Arizona, but the Red Raiders are still forecast to lose to Utah in Arlington.
There’s also a path for a three-loss SEC team to sneak into the field. Alabama could fit that profile even with a loss to LSU, as long as it handles the rest of its schedule.
Notre Dame is projected to lose to Miami next week, which would push the Irish to the wrong side of the bubble and open the door for Ole Miss to move in, especially if the Rebels beat Georgia next Saturday.
And at the Group of Six level, Boise State remains the clear standard-bearer, though the committee will be watching closely when the Broncos face Oregon State.
In Other News...
Alabamas Playoff Outlook Just Took A Hit Before LSU
A bye week was supposed to be a quiet stretch for Alabama, but the latest FPI update still nudged the Crimson Tide in the wrong direction. Alabama slipped one spot to No. 6, while LSU climbed two places to No. 5, tightening the margin between the two teams just as the SEC race starts to sharpen and the stakes around their upcoming meeting keep rising.
The numbers also reflected how much movement came from around the league, with Missouri jumping nine spots to No. 19 after beating Arkansas and other SEC teams shifting based on recent results. For Alabama, the playoff picture barely changed but did soften a bit, with its probability dipping from 62.8% to 60.3%, while LSUs chances of beating the Tide ticked up from 55.1% to 57%, a small swing that still adds a little more pressure to the buildup. [Read more 🡒]
Alabamas Playoff Push Now Hinges On Fixing One Problem Fast
Alabama comes out of its bye week still very much in the College Football Playoff conversation, but the next stretch will be shaped by how quickly the offense can clean up its sluggish starts. The matchup with LSU looms as a useful measuring stick, especially with the Tide trying to get more consistent early in games while also managing injuries up front. In the meantime, the staff has kept its focus on helping quarterback Keelon Russell settle in and on making sure the offense can function more smoothly from the opening snap.
The bigger picture is just as important for Alabama, which has spent the week trying to build depth across both sides of the ball for the grind ahead. Coaches want Russell comfortable enough to avoid unnecessary mistakes, and they are also pushing younger players to grow into larger roles as the season moves on. With the playoff race still alive, the Tides margin for error will depend on whether those fixes start showing up right away. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Shakeup Could Open Door For Alabama Recruiting Win
Florida States coaching change has already sent ripples through the recruiting trail, and Alabama is positioned to watch closely. After the Seminoles fired Mike Norvell following a disappointing start, the uncertainty around the program immediately became part of the conversation for prospects who had been tied to Florida State, including four-star safety Jernard Albright, who has visited Tuscaloosa twice recently.
Majay Thompsons decision to back off his Florida State pledge soon after the firing only added to the sense that the Seminoles class could be in flux. For Alabama, that kind of opening matters, especially with the Tide already in the mix for talented defensive backfield help and still evaluating where Thompson fits as his recruitment resets. [Read more 🡒]