Week 8 could bring another round of college football chaos, and Alabama fans will be watching with one simple condition: just don’t let it include another Crimson Tide loss.
There’s still room for belief around Tuscaloosa, too. The preseason call remains the same here: Alabama finishes 10-2 in the regular season and wins a Playoff game.
That faith is useful armor, because plenty of projections have the Crimson Tide landing at 9-3 instead. And if that’s where Alabama ends up, it may still be enough for something unprecedented: the first-ever 9-3 team, without a conference title, to make the Playoff.
The forecast landscape is a mess, but some of the numbers are starting to take shape. In The Athletic’s Austin Mock’s projections, four SEC teams carry better than a 50% chance to reach the Playoff with 9-3 records.
LSU leads that group at 84%, while Alabama sits at 74%. Texas is projected ahead of Alabama as well, with Florida fourth among those SEC teams.
ESPN’s FPI paints a similar picture in different colors. It has Alabama ranked No. 6 and LSU No. 8, and it gives LSU a 52.1% chance to beat Alabama.
If that model holds, the Crimson Tide would need LSU to take a third loss. If LSU falls to Texas or Tennessee for that third defeat, Alabama and LSU could wind up tied in the standings, with LSU holding the head-to-head edge.
That’s part of what makes the bigger Playoff picture so murky. The idea that the SEC might land five teams is gone, and some current projections have the league bringing in only three.
Still, Alabama is positioned well in the FPI’s Playoff odds. The model gives the Crimson Tide the SEC’s second-best chance at 49.2%.
Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas are all close behind, while LSU and Kentucky are also among the FPI’s 19 teams with the highest Playoff probability. Georgia remains the closest thing to a sure bet.
After the Bulldogs, Alabama and five other SEC teams could be fighting for just three spots, or maybe only two.
The path ahead won’t stay this clear for long. The FPI says LSU has the toughest remaining strength of schedule, followed by Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee.
Kentucky’s road is much softer. Alabama, meanwhile, has the easiest route among the potential 9-3 teams because of one more FCS game.
In Other News...
Nick Saban Just Shared A Side Of Himself Alabama Fans Know Well
Nick Saban spent part of ESPNs College GameDay broadcast in Salt Lake City sounding like a man who has found a new sport to study, and Alabama fans probably recognized the familiar edge of his curiosity right away. The former Crimson Tide coach, now a minority owner of the NHLs Nashville Predators, talked about how his appreciation for hockey has grown and why the sport has held his attention, especially when the conversation turns to how winning teams are built.
The setting made the moment stand out even more, with the crew on hand ahead of a college football game in a city that will host the 2034 Winter Olympics. Saban drew parallels between constructing successful football and hockey teams, a reminder that even in a different arena, he still sees the same themes of discipline, structure and team building, only now with skates instead of cleats. [Read more 🡒]
Nick Saban Still Has Rival Coaches Talking Like This
Utah coach Morgan Scalley used his Week 8 turn on College GameDay to spotlight something Alabama fans have long known: Nick Sabans football mind still carries enormous weight around the sport. Scalley said a conversation he had with Saban about cover 3 defenses left him humbled, a reminder that even among top coaches, Sabans grasp of the game continues to command respect.
The exchange also fit neatly into a larger conversation about Utahs strong start under Scalley, but the Saban anecdote was the part that lingered. For Alabama observers, it was another small sign that long after his sideline days, Saban still shapes the way rival coaches think, teach and talk about defense. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Heads Into The Bye With One Big Roster Concern
Alabama snapped its two-game losing streak with a 31-20 win over Texas A&M, a result that offered some relief after a stretch that had started to test the early part of Kalen DeBoers tenure. The postgame mood was naturally better than it had been the previous two weeks, and DeBoer spent part of his press conference pointing to the value of the bye week as the Tide reset and sort through what the next stretch of the season can look like.
Still, the conversation did not end with the final score. DeBoer talked through the teams performance and the ongoing player evaluations that come with this point in the schedule, while also expressing optimism about getting key players back after the break. For Alabama, the bye arrives with momentum restored, but also with one important roster concern that will shape how quickly this group can settle in once the season resumes. [Read more 🡒]