The Rose Bowl is set, and it’s a matchup that might have felt unthinkable just a few years ago: Alabama vs. Indiana, with a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals on the line.
On paper, it’s No. 1 Indiana, undefeated Big Ten champs, facing a three-loss Alabama team that had to go on the road in the first round just to get here.
But if you ask around Tuscaloosa, you’d think the Tide are the ones sitting atop the rankings.
And that’s exactly what Nick Saban is trying to tamp down.
Speaking from the ESPN College GameDay set in Pasadena, Saban gave a candid look into the mindset back home - and how it doesn’t quite match the reality of the opponent they’re about to face.
“The amazing thing about this is how much respect we have for Indiana internally,” Saban said. “But I go play with my golfing buddies in Alabama, and they're all on the first tee saying, 'We should kick the shit out of Indiana.’”
That’s classic Saban - part dry humor, part warning shot. Because while Alabama fans may still see Indiana as, well, Indiana, the team in crimson and cream is anything but a pushover.
Under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers have pulled off what can only be described as a historic turnaround. Two years ago, Cignetti left James Madison to take over the program with the worst winning percentage in major college football history. Today, he’s led Indiana to back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances - and this time, they’re not just happy to be here.
Last year, Indiana’s playoff run ended quickly. Critics chalked up their postseason berth to a soft schedule, and when they fell to Notre Dame in the opening round, it seemed to confirm the skepticism.
But context matters - those two losses came against Ohio State in the regular season and Notre Dame in South Bend. Both of those teams went on to play in the national title game.
This year, Indiana left no doubt. They beat Oregon on the road.
They took down Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. And they’ve got a Heisman winner under center in Fernando Mendoza, who’s been everything Cignetti could have hoped for - poised, dynamic, and clutch in the biggest moments.
Meanwhile, Alabama had to scrap their way into this game. After a rocky regular season that included three losses, the Tide went on the road and knocked off Oklahoma to punch their ticket to Pasadena. It was a gritty, classic Alabama performance - the kind that reminds you why you never count out a Nick Saban team in January.
But the oddsmakers aren’t leaning into the Bama mystique this time. Indiana enters the Rose Bowl as a 7.5-point favorite - a rare position for Alabama to be in as underdogs on this stage.
And yet, there’s one trend that Tide fans might cling to: through the first two rounds of this year’s expanded 12-team CFP, teams coming off a first-round bye are 0-6. Last year, all four teams with a bye lost their opening game.
This year? Ohio State and Texas Tech, both rested and ranked, got bounced.
That’s not just a fluke - it’s starting to look like a pattern.
So while Indiana has earned every bit of its top ranking, history - and Alabama’s battle-tested edge - suggest this one could be closer than Vegas thinks.
Indiana may no longer be the doormat of college football. But Alabama is still Alabama. And come Thursday in Pasadena, we’ll find out which version of that truth holds up.