Tuesday night will bring the first real glimpse of how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee sees the season, but it still won’t answer everything.
For Alabama, the biggest question is simple: where do the Crimson Tide land in the committee’s first rankings? Just as important, will those rankings show that the chatter about schedule strength is finally turning into something meaningful, or will the committee keep leaning the other way? And maybe the biggest looming issue of all: do the opening top 25 offer any clue about how many SEC teams can ultimately squeeze into the Playoff field?
Those answers, at least in full, won’t come yet. The committee has a habit of shifting its thinking over the final six weeks, so Tuesday is more of a snapshot than a verdict.
That’s especially true in a college football landscape where parity keeps complicating the picture. Next year, the task gets even messier when the committee has to sort out the No. 13 through No. 24 spots.
The problem is that the committee has plenty of data at its disposal, but exactly how it weighs that data is never fully explained.
One recent projection gives a sense of where Alabama might stand. College Football News’ Pete Futiak has the Crimson Tide at No. 11 in Tuesday’s first rankings.
In that forecast, six SEC teams crack the top 12: Georgia at No. 3, Kentucky at No.
6, Texas at No. 9, Tennessee at No.
10, Alabama at No. 11 and Ole Miss at No. 12.
Even so, Futiak thinks the league’s final ceiling by Selection Sunday is probably four teams.
His prediction also has UCLA at No. 4, despite the Bruins’ No. 64 strength of schedule, with the reward coming for what would be an 8-0 record after a win over Nevada. He also projects Cincinnati to beat Utah this week, which would knock the Utes from the unbeaten ranks.
Even with that loss, Futiak still expects Utah to stay high in the committee’s view, placing them at No. 15 and largely overlooking a strength of schedule ranked No. 88.
The opening rankings likely won’t punish teams heavily for schedule strength. That matters because Alabama’s own SOS is No. 7, while Miami’s is No.
- The expectation is that the Canes will open at No. 1 on Tuesday after beating North Carolina.
The rest of Week 9 doesn’t appear likely to move Alabama much. ESPN’s FPI model says the top 11 teams in Futiak’s projection either won’t play or have better than an 82% chance to win.
If Alabama does come in at No. 11, that’s a dangerous place to start. It would suggest a 9-3 Crimson Tide might not have enough to make the final Playoff field. Unless, of course, the committee decides schedule strength is going to matter in a big way after all.
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