The first College Football Playoff rankings are almost here, and that means the guessing game starts in earnest. On Tuesday night, a 13-member committee will begin sorting out the 12 teams that eventually make the field next month, and this opening reveal should tell us plenty about how they see the sport right now.
This year feels messier than most. Upsets have piled up, and the No. 2 team in the AP Poll has dropped three straight games for the first time in nearly 20 years, going back to 2007.
That kind of chaos usually leaves room for more multi-loss teams than usual near the top of the bracket, and the committee also tends to sprinkle in a surprise or two just to keep everyone talking. A No. 1 that nobody expects, a two-loss team jumping a one-loss squad - nothing would be shocking.
With that in mind, here is a projection of how the committee could stack the first 12-team field, plus the group of six spot and the first two teams left out. This is not a personal ranking of the teams, but a prediction of what the committee will do.
Projected initial CFP field:
No. 1 Miami Hurricanes (9-0) - ACC champion
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) - SEC champion
No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
No. 4 Utah Utes (8-0) - Big 12 champion
No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (8-1) - Big Ten champion
No. 6 UCLA Bruins (8-0)
No. 7 BYU Cougars (7-1)
No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats (7-1)
No. 10 Texas Longhorns (6-2)
No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels (6-2)
No. 25 Boise State Broncos (7-1) - Group of Six representative
First Two Out: No. 12 LSU Tigers (6-2) and No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1)
A few of the placements stand out. Alabama is slotted ahead of Kentucky, with the thinking that the committee usually gives strong weight to head-to-head results when teams are close together. BYU is not projected to jump Notre Dame despite winning that matchup, because the teams may not be close enough in the committee’s eyes for that result to matter.
There’s also a belief here that Utah and UCLA could wind up lower than many expect, sitting behind Notre Dame and Indiana, respectively. That would fit the kind of early ranking surprise the committee sometimes likes to create.
For the group of six spot, Boise State gets the nod over UTSA. The American is often viewed favorably among the group of six conferences, but there’s still uncertainty about how the committee will evaluate the new Pac-12, and Boise State is the safer projection.
LSU, meanwhile, would land at No. 12 but still miss the field because of the automatic group of six berth.
The initial CFP rankings will be revealed Tuesday night, Nov. 3, live on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET.
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