Paul Finebaum isn’t buying the low expectations around Alabama.
With fall camp underway and the 2026 college football season closing in, ESPN’s Paul Finebaum pushed back hard on the Crimson Tide’s over/under win total of 8.5. Alabama is coming off an 11-4 season in Kalen DeBoer’s second year, a run that included a trip back to the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff before the Tide were knocked out by Georgia and Indiana.
Finebaum made his stance clear on "The Paul Finebaum Show."
"A pretty interesting analysis there with the number at 8.5, and I agree with Mike, that is too low," Finebaum said. "For whatever criticism you may have, this team looks better than that."
Alabama’s profile entering the season gives reason for the skepticism, at least on paper. ESPN lists the Tide at 48% returning production overall, which ranks No. 85 nationally. The bigger concern is on offense, where Alabama brings back only 35% of its production, a figure that sits at No. 119 in the country.
That uncertainty starts at quarterback. For the third straight season, Alabama will open with a new starter under center, and Ty Simpson is gone to the NFL instead of returning to Tuscaloosa.
The battle is down to Keelon Russell and Austin Mack. Mack has the edge in experience, but the résumé is thin: 35 career passes, 228 yards and three touchdowns. Russell, a former five-star, got into just two games as a true freshman last season and threw for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
Mack knows the system better, while Russell is viewed as the more gifted option and the one who can add more as a runner. That competition could go a long way in determining whether Alabama reaches the College Football Playoff again and gives Finebaum reason to look smart on that 8.5 number.
If the quarterback situation drags into the season, the heat on DeBoer will only rise.
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The numbers alone tell part of the story: Alabama now has six defensive linemen who weigh at least 300 pounds and a dozen who stand 6-4 or taller. For a defense trying to hold up over the grind of the league schedule, that kind of mass and length is not just cosmetic. It is part of a broader push to make the front sturdier, tougher and better equipped for the season ahead. [Read more 🡒]
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Lees arrival is part of what makes the group feel different, because he is stepping into a room where swagger is not just tolerated, it is expected. Alabama has plenty to sell on the field, but the tone coming from the back end suggests the Tide believe their defensive backs are setting it, too. For a team trying to keep that pass defense sharp into the fall, the question is no longer whether there is confidence in the room. It is how far that confidence can carry once the games start. [Read more 🡒]