As the dust settles on the 2025 college football season - with the Indiana Hoosiers shockingly standing atop the mountain as CFP Champions - the sport, as always, wastes no time looking ahead. And in the early conversations about 2026, one of the most striking storylines isn’t about who’s on top, but who’s fallen out of that elite tier - at least for now.
For the first time in years, Alabama enters the offseason outside the top 10 in most “way-too-early” rankings. That’s not a typo.
The Crimson Tide - a program synonymous with dominance and consistency - is sitting anywhere from No. 11 to No. 21 in major national projections. Here’s how the early rankings shake out:
- USA Today slots Alabama at No. 11 - the most optimistic of the bunch.
- CBS Sports puts them at No.
- On3 has the Tide at No.
- The Athletic drops them to No.
- ESPN goes even further, listing Alabama at No. 21 - their lowest early ranking in recent memory.
Now, for a fan base used to seeing Alabama penciled into the top five before spring ball even starts, this might feel like a snub. But dig a little deeper, and the rankings aren’t about disrespect - they’re about uncertainty.
The Quarterback Question
Let’s start with the most obvious unknown: quarterback. With Ty Simpson heading to the NFL Draft, Alabama’s QB1 spot is wide open.
That alone is enough to make pollsters pause. In a sport where elite quarterback play often separates contenders from pretenders, not knowing who will lead your offense is a big deal.
And it’s not just the quarterback. Offensive continuity, or lack thereof, is a major storyline.
The Crimson Tide are looking at a completely rebuilt offensive line. That’s five new faces protecting a yet-to-be-named quarterback - not exactly a recipe for preseason confidence.
The backfield, while talented, is also unproven in a lead role. Daniel Hill and AK Dear will be asked to carry the load, and there’s buzz around incoming freshman Ezavier Crowell. But again, we’re talking about potential - not production.
Then there’s the wide receiver room. Isiah Horton’s transfer leaves a hole, and Ryan Williams - once a breakout candidate - is coming off a slump. Someone has to step up, but who that is remains to be seen.
Talent Isn’t the Issue - Clarity Is
Let’s be clear: Alabama isn’t lacking talent. The roster is still loaded with blue-chip athletes.
But rankings like these aren’t about ceiling - they’re about floor. And right now, Alabama’s floor feels a little shaky simply because so many key questions are unanswered.
This is where head coach Kalen DeBoer’s third year gets interesting. He’s proven he can win, but now he’s tasked with molding a new-look offense from the ground up. That’s no small ask in the SEC, where the margin for error is razor-thin.
Defensive Respect, But With Caveats
On the defensive side, Alabama still commands respect - and rightfully so. But even here, the Tide aren’t immune to turnover.
The linebacker corps, in particular, faces a reset. Deontae Lawson’s departure leaves a leadership void both on the field and in the locker room.
That’s a tough presence to replace, especially in the heart of the defense.
Still, no one’s questioning whether Alabama can field a strong defense. The concern is how quickly the pieces can come together - and whether that cohesion will be there by the time the real games begin.
A New Era, A New Approach
What we’re seeing in these rankings isn’t a dismissal of Alabama’s place in the sport. It’s a reflection of how college football has changed.
The game has shifted toward experience and immediate impact. Older rosters, loaded with transfer portal veterans, are getting the benefit of the doubt.
Alabama, on the other hand, is leaning into youth - betting on long-term development over short-term fixes.
That’s not a bad thing. It just means the path back to the top might take a little more time. And for a program that’s built its identity on earning everything, that’s not unfamiliar territory.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t the first offseason where Alabama has entered with more questions than answers. And history tells us that when the Tide are doubted, they often respond with a vengeance. These early rankings aren’t writing Alabama off - they’re simply acknowledging the unknowns.
By the time fall camp rolls around, many of these concerns may be addressed. A quarterback will emerge.
The offensive line will start to gel. Playmakers will step forward.
Until then, Alabama finds itself in a rare position: chasing, not defending. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that betting against the Crimson Tide in January is rarely a smart move come December.