College football’s marquee matchup this week comes with the betting market already leaning toward Alabama, and that’s a pretty sharp turn from where things stood in the preseason.
FanDuel opened Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite over Georgia, with the total set at 55.5. Back before the season, Georgia was listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Now the script has flipped, and both teams enter with offenses that have spent the fall piling up points.
Alabama is 5-0 and has been brutal on opponents, averaging 49.6 points per game. The Crimson Tide have not dipped below 45 points in any game so far. Georgia has been even higher on the scoreboard at 51.4 points per game, though the last two outings landed at 41 and 38 points.
Georgia’s path to this point has not exactly been lined with heavyweight competition. The Bulldogs have covered and gone over the total in each of their first four games, but they failed to do either last weekend.
Their opponents are a combined 9-15, and Georgia’s strength of schedule sits at 97th. Alabama’s opponents, by comparison, are 15-9, and the Tide’s strength of schedule is 23rd.
The Bulldogs’ early numbers have also been shaped by the kind of lopsided wins that inflate an offense fast. The 70-point explosion against WKU stands out, especially since WKU is 1-4 and also gave up 49 to Nevada.
Georgia’s schedule was supposed to get a test from Oklahoma, but John Mateer has not lived up to that billing, and Vanderbilt after Diego Pavia has not looked like much of a threat either. Arkansas, meanwhile, is described as being in a deep funk.
Alabama has also been a strong play for bettors, even with one early stumble. The Tide did not cover against Florida State, but they have covered in the other four games. The Over has been a friend too, and the only real question after that FSU game is whether it was a one-off or simply the early growing pains of Keelon Russell, who has apparently been progressing quickly at quarterback.
This one should have the full spotlight on it, and it will be Alabama’s second night game after the South Carolina matchup. Early forecasts are calling for rain in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, though that was said ahead of the MSU game as well.
The numbers point to a close, high-scoring game. A 29-27 kind of finish would fit the current line, but the lean here is still over 55.5 and Alabama on the spread. The call is that both teams get past 30, with the Tide winning by around five.
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Xavier Griffin also stood out on the other side of the ball, leading the team in tackles and helping make several key defensive plays. Just as important for a defense looking to steady itself, Alabamas run front was much firmer against Mississippi State, holding the Bulldogs to 18 rushing yards and giving the Tide something concrete to carry into a bigger test. [Read more 🡒]
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Keelon Russells rise has become one of the more notable developments around Alabamas early-season start, and the quarterbacks recent stretch has only sharpened the attention. After throwing four touchdowns in the spring game and then piling up 10 passing touchdowns and 970 yards over three games, he has helped steady a team that rolled to a 56-23 win and moved to 5-0.
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For Alabama, the bigger point is simple: the Crimson Tide have a real path to move up if the voters decide the chaos mattered as much as the resumes. The poll will be refreshed soon, and with conference play still unfolding, there is a decent chance the order gets jumbled in a way that opens the door for Alabama to climb if enough teams ahead of it wobble. [Read more 🡒]