With a Rose Bowl berth on the line and a College Football Playoff semifinal ticket up for grabs, Alabama and Indiana are set to square off in a New Year’s Day clash that promises high stakes and hard hits. For the Crimson Tide, it's not just about living up to the legacy - it's about showing they can still impose their will when it matters most. Indiana, meanwhile, comes in with a balanced attack and a few statistical edges that could tilt the game in their favor if Alabama doesn’t tighten things up in key areas.
Here’s where the Tide need to lock in if they want to keep their postseason dreams alive.
1. Win the battle on third down - or risk losing the war
If there’s one stat that jumps off the page for Indiana, it’s this: the Hoosiers lead the nation in third-down conversions, moving the chains at a blistering 55.8% clip. That’s not just good - that’s drive-extending, clock-chewing, momentum-stealing good. And if Alabama wants to control the tempo, they’ve got to slam the brakes on that trend.
It starts with early-down success. The Tide can’t afford to let Indiana get into third-and-manageable situations.
That means stuffing the run on first down, forcing incomplete passes on second, and then dialing up pressure when the Hoosiers face third down. Disrupting quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s rhythm is priority No. 1 - he’s too dangerous when given time and space.
On the flip side, Alabama’s own third-down offense has room to grow. Ranked 40th in the country, they’ve been solid but not spectacular.
To keep drives alive and keep Indiana’s offense on the sideline, Ty Simpson and the Alabama passing game will need to lean on high-efficiency routes - think slants, quick outs, and screens that get the ball out fast and into the hands of playmakers. Anything that keeps the Tide out of third-and-long is a win.
2. Red zone execution will separate contenders from pretenders
This game could come down to who finishes drives with six instead of three. That’s where red zone performance becomes everything - and both teams bring serious credentials into this matchup.
Indiana converts red zone trips into points 90.8% of the time, one of the best marks in the country. Alabama isn’t far behind, hovering just above 88%.
But the real chess match will come when Indiana’s offense meets Alabama’s red zone defense, which ranks 19th nationally. That’s where the Tide have a chance to make their mark.
Expect Alabama to load the box and force Indiana to beat them through the air in tight spaces. The key?
Disguising coverages pre-snap and spying Mendoza, who’s more than capable of taking off if the pocket collapses. In the compressed space of the red zone, discipline and gap integrity become even more critical.
One slip, and Mendoza will make you pay with his legs.
On offense, Alabama needs to stay committed to the run inside the 20. Punching it in on the ground not only wears down Indiana’s 25th-ranked red zone defense, but it also sends a message: we’re not settling for field goals.
3. Shut down the run - or get run out of the stadium
If there’s one area where Indiana can flat-out dominate, it’s on the ground. The Hoosiers are averaging 221.2 rushing yards per game - good for 10th in the country - and they’ve built their identity around controlling the line of scrimmage. That’s a problem for any defense, but especially for one that’s allowing 120.6 yards per game like Alabama.
The formula here is simple: stop the run, and you force Indiana into uncomfortable situations. Take away their bread and butter, and suddenly the Hoosiers have to rely more on a passing game that isn’t quite as explosive. That’s when the Tide can pin their ears back and go hunting for turnovers.
Alabama’s front seven will need to be physical, disciplined, and relentless. Gap control is everything. If the Tide can clog running lanes and get Indiana behind the sticks, they can flip the script and make this a shootout - a game where Ty Simpson’s arm and Alabama’s playmakers could thrive in space.
And if it comes down to turnovers? That’s where Alabama can really swing momentum. Force a fumble, jump a route, recover a bobbled snap - any extra possession could be the difference in a game this tight.
Bottom line
Alabama doesn’t need to be perfect - but they do need to be sharp. The Hoosiers are no pushover, not with their third-down efficiency, red zone execution, and punishing run game.
But the Tide have the tools to pull this off. It’s about execution, discipline, and winning situational football.
If Alabama can get off the field on third down, hold strong in the red zone, and make Indiana one-dimensional, they’ll give themselves a real shot at punching their ticket to the College Football Playoff. And if they can do all three? Don’t be surprised if the Tide roll into the semis with momentum - and a message for the rest of the field.