Ty Simpson’s NFL Draft Stock Faces Questions After Senior Bowl, But His Ceiling Remains Intriguing
Ty Simpson made his decision: he’s heading to the NFL. No returning to Tuscaloosa, no exploring the Transfer Portal - just a straight shot to the pros.
The belief? He had done enough at Alabama to lock in a first-round selection.
But after a week of buzz and behind-the-scenes chatter at the Senior Bowl, that assumption may have hit a snag.
Despite Simpson and his camp reportedly receiving first-round feedback from the NFL’s advisory committee, ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller offered a different take. According to Miller, not only does Simpson not carry a Round 1 grade on his personal board, but he also couldn't find a single team at the Senior Bowl that had Simpson pegged as a first-rounder.
“Simpson's lack of size and arm strength could ultimately push him down the board,” Miller noted in his latest mock draft. “But his poise and processing skills are NFL-level.”
In that mock, Miller has Simpson landing with the New York Jets at No. 44 overall - a second-round pick, but still the second quarterback off the board behind projected No. 1 overall selection Fernando Mendoza. That’s a notable drop from the top-tier expectations, but it also speaks to the complex evaluation that comes with Simpson’s game.
What’s Working for Simpson - and What’s Not
Let’s start with what NFL scouts do like. Simpson’s mental game is ahead of the curve.
His ability to diagnose defenses pre-snap, make adjustments, and quickly work through progressions post-snap is arguably the best among this year’s quarterback class. That’s not just lip service - it shows up on tape, especially in the early part of Alabama’s season.
And while he may not have elite arm strength, Simpson throws with timing and anticipation. He understands leverage, knows how to manipulate safeties with his eyes, and rarely puts the ball in harm’s way. His decision-making is a strength, not a question mark.
But the concerns are real. He doesn't have the prototypical size or velocity that some teams covet, especially for quarterbacks expected to operate in tight NFL windows.
And with just 15 career starts under his belt, there’s a limited sample size. That lack of experience could make teams hesitant to hand him the keys to the offense on Day 1.
In today’s NFL, where rookie quarterbacks are often expected to start early and deliver results fast, that matters.
The Bigger Picture: QB Demand Still Works in His Favor
Here’s the thing - quarterbacks tend to rise in the draft. Teams get desperate.
Boards shift. Medicals, interviews, and private workouts can elevate a prospect’s stock in a matter of weeks.
Simpson still has the NFL Combine and Alabama’s Pro Day ahead of him, and both will be crucial. He’s likely to shine in team meetings, where his football IQ and leadership traits can leave a lasting impression. If he interviews as well as scouts expect, and shows enough arm talent in controlled throwing sessions, he could climb right back into Round 1 territory.
And history is on his side. In 12 of the last 13 drafts, multiple quarterbacks have been taken in the first round.
Even in years with modest QB classes, teams have reached. The demand for competent, coachable quarterbacks with upside is constant - and Simpson checks a lot of those boxes.
Final Word
Ty Simpson may not be the slam-dunk first-rounder some thought he was when he declared, but his story is far from written. His processing ability, poise under pressure, and command of an offense are all traits that translate to the next level. If he can stay in the QB2 slot behind Mendoza - and make the most of the pre-draft process - there’s still a real chance he hears his name called on Day 1.
The NFL Draft is a marathon, not a sprint. And Simpson, with all his tools and intangibles, is still very much in the race.