Ty Simpson’s NFL Draft Stock: Intriguing Talent, but a Risky Bet
As the NFL Draft approaches, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson finds himself in a complicated spot - one that’s equal parts potential and uncertainty. There’s no denying the talent. But there’s also no ignoring the red flags, and for NFL teams in need of a franchise quarterback, Simpson’s résumé presents a high-risk, high-reward dilemma.
Let’s start with the elephant in the room: experience. Simpson was the full-time starter for just one season in Tuscaloosa, taking over the reins in 2025 and starting all 15 games.
That’s the entirety of his college starting career. In an era where NFL teams are investing heavily in young quarterbacks and expecting immediate returns, that’s a tough sell.
Since 2015, only six quarterbacks have entered the league with fewer than 20 college starts. That group includes Kyler Murray, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Anthony Richardson, and Mitchell Trubisky.
You don’t need a deep dive into each of their careers to see the trend - Murray is the only one who’s had any real success, and even he may be on his way out in Arizona. The rest?
A mix of unmet expectations, inconsistency, and early exits.
That’s the historical backdrop Simpson is walking into.
Now, let’s talk about what Simpson has shown. In 2025, he threw for 3,567 yards with 28 touchdowns against just five interceptions, completing 64.5% of his passes.
Those are solid numbers, especially considering the level of competition in the SEC. But it’s worth noting that much of that production came in the first half of the season.
Down the stretch, Simpson battled through injuries - including a cracked rib that knocked him out of Alabama’s Rose Bowl loss to Indiana - and his play took a noticeable dip.
Injuries aside, scouts and evaluators have raised concerns about his physical tools. Simpson’s arm strength is serviceable but not elite.
He can make the throws, but he’s not going to wow anyone with deep-ball velocity or tight-window lasers. He’s mobile, but not a dynamic athlete in the mold of a Lamar Jackson or even a Daniel Jones.
He can move the chains with his legs, but he’s not going to change the game with them.
So where does that leave us? With a quarterback who has intriguing upside but a limited body of work, modest physical traits, and durability questions. That’s a tough combination for a team picking early in the first round - especially a team like the New York Jets, who hold the No. 2 and No. 16 picks and are desperate to solve their long-standing quarterback problem.
There’s no question Simpson will be on draft boards. He’s smart, poised, and showed flashes of high-level play during Alabama’s 2025 campaign.
But any team considering him in the first round will need to reconcile the risk that comes with such limited experience. History hasn’t been kind to quarterbacks with similar profiles, and in today’s NFL, patience is in short supply.
The talent is there. The question is whether it’s enough - and whether a team is willing to bet big on a quarterback who’s still very much a work in progress.