Kirk Herbstreit didn’t sugarcoat the situation for Alabama and LSU ahead of Saturday’s matchup in Baton Rouge. With both teams sitting at two losses, the ESPN analyst made it clear that another defeat could push either program into a dangerous spot when the College Football Playoff picture gets sorted out.
“Two loss LSU, two-loss Alabama,” said Herbstreit. “We might get some three loss teams in [the College Football Playoff] this year because everybody’s beating everybody.
But I don’t think you want to get in that line. I don’t think you want to get in that three-loss line and have to hope the Committee eventually puts you in.”
That warning carries real weight after last season’s CFP drama, when Alabama became the first three-loss team to make the field without the help of an unlikely conference championship run. Clemson had done that the year before.
Alabama’s selection, paired with Notre Dame being left out despite two losses, set off a major offseason debate. Notre Dame then declined a non-CFP bowl, and plenty of people felt the Irish got a raw deal.
The bigger issue now is what the SEC’s new nine-game schedule is doing to the playoff race. More top teams are going to be left hovering near the edge of the bracket, and the list is already crowded.
One-loss Kentucky still has Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri ahead. Alabama has LSU tonight.
Ole Miss, also with two losses, is about to face Georgia. Texas, LSU, Missouri, and Tennessee all have difficult games waiting as well.
That kind of traffic jam makes the playoff math messy. In a 24-team field, this would all be much simpler, with the only real question for a 9-3 SEC team being how far it would fall in the seeding. But in a 12-team playoff, with Notre Dame, four conference champions, and a Group of 5 champion taking up half the spots, the remaining places become a much tighter fight.
Even so, the final read here is that at least one three-loss SEC team could still slip into the bracket. The catch is that it may not be the loser of Alabama-LSU. For all the offseason talk about a bigger playoff weakening the value of regular-season games, Week 10 suggests that line still hasn’t been crossed just yet.
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