Alabama is starting to take over the numbers game ahead of Saturday night’s showdown with Georgia.
For months, Georgia had been the team most oddsmakers leaned toward in the Week 6 matchup. That has shifted. The Bulldogs are now the underdog against the Crimson Tide, with sportsbooks giving Alabama a slight edge - so slight that Bryant-Denny’s home crowd may be the difference.
ESPN Analytics has also moved Alabama into the favorite’s seat, giving the Crimson Tide a 52.6% chance to win. In ESPN’s computer model, Alabama now sits atop college football as the most efficient team in the country. Georgia is right behind at No. 3 overall.
The breakdown gets even more interesting when the units are separated. Georgia is No. 1 in Offensive Efficiency and No. 11 in Defensive Efficiency.
Alabama checks in at No. 2 on offense and No. 5 on defense. The biggest gap comes on special teams, where Georgia is No. 11 and Alabama is way down at No.
That’s what makes this Tuscaloosa matchup the centerpiece of Week 6. There will be plenty of number-crunching all week, and plenty of debate about what matters most.
Georgia’s path to this point has left some uncertainty, though, because the Bulldogs have played a very light schedule. They have faced no ranked opponents and no FBS team that has a winning record against other FBS teams.
Taken together, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt are 5-11 against FBS teams.
That leaves the obvious questions hanging over Saturday night: if Georgia hasn’t been pushed yet, are the Bulldogs ready for a tight game against an elite opponent? And is Alabama simply good, or is this a team that belongs in the very top tier?
Those answers will have to wait until Saturday.
Another computer agrees with the Crimson Tide’s rise. Kenneth Massey’s model has Alabama at No. 1, with Texas at No. 2 and Georgia at No. 3.
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