LSU will walk into Saturday’s Week 10 showdown with Alabama as the betting favorite, a notable twist in a rivalry that usually feels like a coin flip no matter the year.
Circa Sports opened the Tigers as 4-point favorites over the Crimson Tide, with the total set at 53 points. The matchup is set for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC in Death Valley, where both teams arrive at 6-2 and both are trying to avoid a third loss that would put a serious dent in their College Football Playoff and SEC title hopes.
The records are close, but the standings still show a slight edge for Alabama in league play. The No.
9 Crimson Tide are 4-2 in conference games, while No. 15 LSU sits at 3-2.
That’s part of what makes this line stand out: these two SEC heavyweights are separated by very little on paper, yet the Tigers are the ones getting the early nod from oddsmakers.
Both teams will also come in rested, since each is coming off a bye week. Whether that means healthier rosters or just fresher legs, it adds another layer to a game that already carries plenty of weight in early November.
The series itself has been around since 1895, when LSU beat Alabama 12-6 in the first meeting. Since then, the overall rivalry has tilted heavily toward the Tide, who own a 58-27-5 edge and bring a three-game winning streak against LSU into Saturday’s matchup.
In Other News...
Alabamas Playoff Outlook Just Took A Hit Before LSU
A quiet bye week still managed to nudge Alabama in the wrong direction in the playoff picture, at least according to the latest FPI update. The Crimson Tide slipped one spot to No. 6, while LSU climbed to No. 5, a reminder that even without playing, the margins around the top of the SEC can shift quickly as the season tightens.
The numbers are still favorable for Alabama, but the trend line is not ideal heading into a matchup with LSU. The Tides playoff probability dipped from 62.8% to 60.3%, and LSUs chances of beating Alabama ticked up from 55.1% to 57%, adding a little more pressure to a game that was already going to carry major weight in the conference race. [Read more 🡒]
Alabamas Playoff Push Now Hinges On Fixing One Problem Fast
A bye week gave Alabama a chance to reset before LSU, and the timing matters with the Crimson Tide still in the College Football Playoff picture. The focus inside the program has turned to the same issues that have followed them through stretches of the season: sluggish offensive starts, an offensive line dealing with injuries, and the need to get quarterback Keelon Russell into a rhythm early instead of asking the offense to play catch-up.
Coaches are also using this stretch to broaden the rosters base of experience, especially with younger players on both sides of the ball. The goal is twofold for Alabama, make Russell more comfortable so the offense can avoid risky plays, and build the kind of depth that can hold up over the final run of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Shakeup Could Open Door For Alabama Recruiting Win
Florida States decision to fire Mike Norvell has already sent a ripple through the recruiting board, and Alabama is positioned to benefit if the fallout keeps going. The Crimson Tide have been in the mix with 4-star safety Jernard Albright, who has visited Tuscaloosa twice recently, and a coaching change in Tallahassee can quickly alter how committed prospects view their options.
Majay Thompsons decommitment from Florida State shortly after Norvells exit only adds another layer to the situation. Alabama has reason to stay engaged there as well, and with the Seminoles now sorting through an uncertain transition, the Tide could find themselves in the right place at the right time if either recruitment opens up further. [Read more 🡒]