November has started to sort out the SEC, and after Week 10 the picture looks a little sharper - even if the league still has plenty of chaos left in it.
Some teams have pushed themselves into safer territory. Others are staring at a rough finish.
And a few are still hanging around that 9-3 conversation, though the margin for error keeps shrinking. Here’s where the SEC stands now, team by team.
Alabama moved itself out of the 9-3 danger zone with a 31-13 road win over LSU, and the path ahead looks manageable. Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn are the remaining hurdles, and none of them looks likely to stop the Crimson Tide. That leaves Alabama at 10-2.
Georgia keeps looking like the league’s steadiest team. The Bulldogs handled Ole Miss 42-7 and now sit at 11-1 in this projection, with no obvious loss on the horizon. They’ve been the most consistent group in the SEC, and Week 10 did nothing to change that.
Texas also strengthened its position with a 34-20 win over Missouri. The Longhorns are projected to finish 10-2, with LSU up next and Arkansas and Texas A&M after that. If they get through Baton Rouge, the rest of the finish line looks favorable.
Ole Miss took the worst of it in Week 10, getting hammered by Georgia, but the Rebels still have a route to 9-3. The trip to Oklahoma is the key game, and if they can survive that one, Wofford and a Kamario Taylor-less Mississippi State should give them a chance to steady things. The CFP picture is still there, but Norman is the first test.
Tennessee also stayed on track with a 34-6 win over Kentucky, but the next two weeks are a different kind of challenge. A trip to College Station followed by a home date with LSU makes 9-3 the most likely landing spot, even if Vanderbilt on the back end doesn’t look threatening.
South Carolina has quietly turned its season around. After starting 2-3, the Gamecocks beat Texas A&M 17-9 and now look set for 8-4. Georgia at home is a massive ask, but wins at Arkansas and Clemson have changed the feel of the season in Columbia.
Kentucky’s 34-6 loss to Tennessee was a jolt, but the Wildcats still project to finish 9-3. Florida comes to Lexington next, and the final two games are winnable enough that 9-3 remains the logical call.
LSU dropped to Alabama and now faces a brutal stretch with Texas and a trip to Tennessee still ahead. Even so, it’s hard to picture the Tigers losing all three, so they land at 8-4.
Missouri got slowed by Texas and now has a tough closing stretch, with Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma all looming in some form. The Tigers should find one more win somewhere, but the projection settles at 7-5.
Auburn’s 26-23 win over Arkansas kept its season moving in the right direction. The Tigers are bowl eligible and should have a good shot to add another win at Mississippi State, which pushes them to 7-5.
Florida fell 23-7 to Oklahoma and now heads to Lexington for a game that won’t be easy. If that one goes the wrong way, Vanderbilt and Florida State would still give Jon Sumrall’s squad a chance to finish on a better note. The Gators are projected at 7-5.
Oklahoma picked up a 23-7 win over Florida and looked a little livelier with Jason Witten calling plays, but the finish is still tricky. Ole Miss and Texas A&M come to Norman, and Missouri is also on the schedule. A 7-5 finish is possible, but 6-6 is the safer call for a team that’s been too inconsistent.
Mississippi State dropped a 25-23 game to Vanderbilt and now looks headed away from the postseason. Auburn and Ole Miss are both difficult asks, and the Bulldogs finish at 5-7.
Texas A&M is in a tough spot after the loss to South Carolina. The Aggies need to win at Oklahoma and then pull off an upset against either Tennessee or Texas at home just to reach bowl eligibility. Right now, that looks like a lot to ask, so they’re projected at 5-7.
Arkansas fell 26-23 to Auburn and is close to running out of road. South Carolina, Texas and LSU are still left, and the Razorbacks are projected to finish 3-9.
Vanderbilt earned a 25-23 win over Mississippi State, but the road ahead is still steep. Alabama, Florida and Tennessee remain, and the Commodores are projected to finish 4-8.
In Other News...
Alabama Is Using Last Year's Vanderbilt Humbling For A Reason
Last years trip to Nashville still lingers around Alabamas building, even if the Crimson Tide are not dwelling on it the same way outside observers might. The 2024 loss to Vanderbilt was a jolt, ending a long run of dominance in the series and becoming part of the backdrop to Alabama missing the College Football Playoff that season. As the Tide prepare to face the Commodores again, Kalen DeBoer and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack have pointed back to that game as a reminder of how quickly a season can shift when urgency slips.
The message from the staff is less about revenge than about standards. Some players have treated the loss as a distant memory rather than a central talking point, but Alabamas coaches have leaned on it to reinforce the need for relentlessness from snap to snap. For a program that expects to control games, the Vanderbilt result remains a useful lesson in what happens when that edge disappears, and why the Tide are making sure it does not happen again. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Recruiting Debate May Be Bigger Than This Year's Class
Andrew Ivins early look at Alabamas 2027 recruiting class left him uneasy, but the 247Sports director of scouting has since come around on the bigger picture. The class is sitting at No. 32, which is Alabamas lowest ranking in the 247Sports era, but Ivins now sees a path that could make sense in todays college football landscape if the Tide continue to lean into a larger high school haul and use the transfer market to fill in the gaps.
Greg Byrne has already signaled that Alabama wants to put more emphasis on high school recruiting in 2028, which only adds another layer to the debate. For a program that has long been measured by elite class rankings, the question is no longer just how this class stacks up on paper, but whether Alabamas broader roster-building approach can keep pace with the sports shifting rules and expectations. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Has A Real Stake In The SECs 2027 Scheduling Scramble
The College Football Playoffs new five-year agreement with ESPN is already forcing a major reset on how teams build future schedules, and Alabama has a real stake in how the SEC responds. Starting next season, Power Five programs will need to line up at least 10 Power Five opponents to stay eligible for the expanded 24-team field beginning in 2027, which has sent schools across the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC scrambling to adjust their calendars.
For Alabama, the ripple effect matters because scheduling has long been part of the programs playoff rsum and national-brand calculus. Some schools are already canceling previously booked games and hunting for replacements, while Oregon State and Washington State have a waiver that lets them count as Power Five teams despite the upheaval around their conference status. The SECs next move will shape not just who the Crimson Tide plays, but how much room there is to maneuver in a new playoff era. [Read more 🡒]