Alabama’s Week 3 matchup with Florida State may come with plenty of noise, but the real question isn’t whether the Seminoles can challenge the Crimson Tide. It’s whether Alabama can keep Alabama from making it interesting.
Florida State arrives in Tuscaloosa with its program in rough shape. Athletic Director Mike Alford was fired in recent days, a move that only sharpened the sense that Mike Norvell could be next.
Inside the numbers, the picture isn’t much prettier: four credible computer models place the Seminoles anywhere from No. 36 to No. 52 nationally, while Jarrett Guerrera’s ACC Power Rankings on the FSU site Chop Chat slot them at No. 16 in the league. Even Georgia Tech, the ACC’s winless team, sits higher at No. 8 in those rankings.
The quarterback situation has been a swing and a miss, too. Norvell took a gamble on Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels, but Daniels has not delivered. He is outside college football’s top 100 quarterbacks in completion percentage at 58% this season, and his career record as a starter at Stanford, Auburn, and Florida State stands at 6-21.
There’s a reason the buildup in Tallahassee has been muted. Florida State has enough athletes to make some plays and maybe keep this from getting ugly, but the Seminoles do not look like a team that can go into Tuscaloosa and win. On Saturday, the only team that can beat Alabama is Alabama.
That’s the part that matters most after what happened against Kentucky. Alabama showed it can be undone by its own mistakes, and that remains the Crimson Tide’s clearest danger here. Still, repeating that first-half wobble in Tuscaloosa feels unlikely.
The top computer models see Alabama holding Florida State well below 20 points, with the Seminoles projected to land between 12 and 18. Alabama’s offense is projected to stay under 36, and the expected final margin sits in the 16- to 20-point range.
If Alabama gets sloppy enough, the spread could shrink to 10 to 14 points. But the Tide are not expected to fall apart to the point where a Florida State team in turmoil, with a “dead man walking” head coach, can steal the game.
In Other News...
Alabama Faces One Big Receiver Question Before Florida State
Alabamas opening stretch has already brought a few roster changes into focus, and the receiver room is one of the more interesting ones as the Crimson Tide prepare for Florida State. Noah Rogers has yet to play this season while working back from a lower-body injury, but he appears to be nearing a return at a time when Alabama is still sorting out how its newer faces fit into the offense.
Florida State comes into the matchup carrying plenty of its own uncertainty after firing its athletic director, and the pressure around Mike Norvell only adds to the stakes of the game. For Alabama, the question is less about the headline outside the program and more about how quickly Rogers can get back on the field and give the Tide another option before a challenging early-season test. [Read more 🡒]
Alabamas Past Jeremy Pruitt Interest Is Suddenly Back In Focus
Jeremy Pruitts fight with the NCAA has returned to the spotlight in Alabama, where the state Supreme Court heard oral arguments in his lawsuit this week. The former Tennessee coach is challenging the NCAAs authority to handle the case in Alabama, putting a legal dispute tied to his firing and the punishment that followed back in front of a court with real implications for his coaching future.
Pruitt is seeking $100 million over the penalties he says stemmed from the NCAAs actions, including the six-year show-cause order that has limited his employment opportunities. The justices did not rule from the bench, so the case now moves into another waiting period while the court considers how to handle a dispute that Alabama fans have followed from the start because of where Pruitts career once intersected with their program. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Gets A Needed O-Line Boost Before Florida State
Alabamas offensive line should get a timely lift heading into the Florida State game, with right guard Michael Carroll expected to be available after sitting out the previous matchup because of an injury. The freshman All-America pick has been back in practice, and his return would give the Tide a more settled look up front at a point in the season when every piece matters.
Carrolls presence also matters because Alabama is preparing for a Florida State team that can challenge defenses on the ground, putting even more pressure on the Tide to be firm at the point of attack. Getting him back gives Alabama a better chance to handle those physical demands and keep its offensive plans on schedule in a matchup where line play could shape the day. [Read more 🡒]