Halloween didn’t exactly go according to plan for the teams featured in last week’s bold predictions. Oregon State was the only one to lose outright, getting knocked off 38-22 by Fresno State and putting a dent in the Pac-12 race. Indiana came much closer to joining the list, but the Hoosiers survived Minnesota only because kicker Paddy McAteer drilled a 60-yard field goal at the buzzer to force overtime, then pulled away for a 23-17 win.
Now the schedule gets a lot heavier. This week brings one of the most loaded slates of the season, and the matchups offer plenty of room for chaos.
Texas is only a 2.5-point favorite against Missouri in a game that would have looked like a Big 12 matchup not all that long ago, but the numbers point toward an upset. College Football Reference says Texas has faced the toughest schedule in the country, while Missouri’s slate doesn’t rank inside the top 30.
That matters when you look at how Arch Manning and the Longhorns have handled quality defenses. Against Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma, Manning has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions combined.
Missouri’s defense, led by Corey Batoon, won’t have another elite offense to deal with on Saturday after giving up 498 yards to Ole Miss three weeks ago. Missouri wins 24-20.
Alabama’s place in the CFP rankings only sharpened the conversation around the Crimson Tide. The committee put Alabama eight spots ahead of Tennessee even though the Volunteers own the same record and beat Alabama three weeks ago.
That hardly quieted the suspicion that the committee gives too much credit to the sport’s biggest TV draws. LSU, though, can help clear things up by beating Alabama convincingly enough to send the Tide tumbling into the 10-15 range where they belong.
LSU’s profile is not spotless, but the Tigers have not been flattened the way Alabama was against Tennessee. Their two losses have come by a combined nine points, and in both games they were tied or ahead in the back half of the fourth quarter.
At home, even a B+ performance should be enough for LSU to score 30 points and win by double digits. The Alabama defense, the source of the problem here, will be the weakest unit on the field.
Oklahoma and Kentucky get lumped together here because they were both favored by 6.5 points when this was first written, though the Gators’ line dropped to six soon after. There are reasons to like both underdogs, but the edge goes to the teams trying to hold serve. Oklahoma’s defense has already shown it can slow down good offenses like Florida’s, while Kentucky, even if it is overmatched on paper, has shown under Will Stein that it can beat anyone.
The concerns are obvious. Oklahoma’s offense ranks 109th in FBS in scoring, and Kentucky may be running out of room after three one-possession wins since the calendar flipped to October.
Still, the Gators are reportedly making a quarterback change, and Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Monday. That makes the Sooners the safer call.
Nebraska looks like the best bet of the bunch. After three straight one-possession losses, the Cornhuskers are the kind of team that feels overdue for a clean finish.
Nebraska has been a little better than average on offense and legitimately excellent on defense against a mediocre schedule. Illinois, meanwhile, has been mediocre on both sides of the ball against a slightly above-average slate, even if its best win - over Oregon - came despite being outgained by more than 100 yards.
That sets up a Friday rebound for Nebraska, and a big one. A 20-point win feels right, something like 34-14. It also feels more certain than Michigan’s rivalry game with Michigan State, which has the shape of a defensive slog and a 17-9 final no matter who starts at quarterback for the Spartans.
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Keelon Russell sits at the center of Alabamas hopes, while LSU brings a pass rush that can force a quarterback into hurried decisions and ugly mistakes. Add in the Tides issues with penalties and injuries, and the margin for error gets thin fast, especially against a rival that has made a habit of turning high-stakes games into pressure cookers. [Read more 🡒]