Alabama’s latest computer numbers all point the same direction heading into the Kentucky game: the Crimson Tide are favored, and several models like them by a comfortable margin.
The AP and Coaches polls both have Alabama at No. 12 after this week’s movement - up one spot in the AP Poll and down one in the Coaches Poll. But the computer rankings are where the wider spread starts to show.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Alabama at No. 11, which makes the Tide the sixth-highest-ranked SEC team in that model. SP+ gives Alabama a 71% chance to beat Kentucky and projects a 28-19 final.
The SEC teams sitting ahead of Alabama in that ranking are Georgia at No. 2, Texas at No.
4, Texas A&M at No. 8, LSU at No. 9, and Oklahoma at No.
The same model also shows a few notable movers elsewhere in the league. Mississippi State jumped 13 spots to No.
35, Kentucky climbed nine spots to No. 39, South Carolina moved up six to No. 19, and Auburn fell 16 spots to No.
ESPN’s FPI is even more confident in Alabama’s chances, giving the Tide an 84.6% probability of beating the Wildcats.
Kenneth Massey and Jeff Sagarin also see Alabama leaving Lexington with a win. Sagarin puts Alabama’s odds at 62% and projects a 31-27 final. Massey is even more bullish, giving Alabama an 80% chance and the same 31-27 score prediction.
The two systems differ a bit on where Alabama sits nationally and in the SEC, though both keep the Tide in the upper tier. Sagarin has Alabama at No. 11 and calls it the SEC’s sixth-best team, with Texas at No.
2, LSU at No. 4, Georgia at No.
7, Texas A&M at No. 9, and Oklahoma at No. 10 ahead of the Tide.
Massey places Alabama at No. 7 and slots it as the SEC’s third-best team. In that ranking, Ole Miss is No.
5, Georgia is No. 6, and Texas is also No. 7.
Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma come in at No. 12, No. 13, and No.
If these numbers don’t line up with what you want to see, the message from the models is simple: wait a little longer. Their track records tend to sharpen as October rolls along.
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