As we head into the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings reveal on Tuesday night, the betting markets are sending a loud and clear message: Alabama is in - and it might not even matter what happens in the SEC Championship Game.
Despite a potential scenario where the Crimson Tide falls to Georgia this Saturday and BYU stuns Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, oddsmakers aren’t flinching. That combo could, in theory, push Alabama out of the top four.
But Vegas? Vegas isn’t buying it.
Alabama’s Odds Say It All
According to FanDuel, Alabama is sitting at -2000 to make the playoff. That’s not just confidence - that’s near-certainty.
To put that in perspective: if you wanted to make $100 betting that Alabama will make the playoff, you’d have to risk $2,000. On the flip side, if you think the Tide will miss the playoff, a $100 bet would return $920.
That kind of disparity tells you everything you need to know about where the smart money is going.
Oddsmakers are rarely in the business of losing money. And when they’re this exposed - with a potential for major losses if Alabama doesn’t get in - it’s because they’re confident that the Tide is already playoff-bound, regardless of what happens in Atlanta or Arlington.
Metrics vs. Money
Here’s where things get interesting. ESPN’s “Playoff Predictor” - a model that crunches data and spits out probabilities - gives Alabama just a 39% chance to make the playoff if they lose to Georgia. That’s a significant gap between what the analytics say and what the betting markets are showing.
So who do you trust? The model? Or the people putting real money on the line?
Historically, the betting markets are a pretty good indicator of what’s coming. And right now, they’re telling us that Alabama isn’t just in the conversation - they’re already in the room.
A Potential Rankings Shake-Up
Don’t be shocked if Tuesday night’s rankings reflect that confidence. Alabama could very well jump ahead of Notre Dame into the No. 9 spot, a move that would all but solidify their playoff positioning. That would leave the Irish in a much more precarious spot, especially with the Big 12 Championship Game looming as a potential swing factor.
FanDuel currently lists Notre Dame’s odds of missing the playoff at +285 - the same number they’ve assigned to BYU pulling off the Big 12 upset. That’s not a coincidence. It suggests oddsmakers believe Notre Dame’s fate is more directly tied to the Big 12 outcome than Alabama’s.
In other words, the Tide might already be in. The Irish? They’re still sweating it out.
Control What You Can Control
Of course, all of this becomes moot if Alabama handles its business and beats Georgia on Saturday. That would erase any doubt, any debate, and any need to rely on the whims of the selection committee - which, let’s be honest, has been all over the place this season when it comes to prioritizing metrics.
So while the betting markets are flashing green lights for Alabama, the safest path forward is still the simplest one: win and you’re in.