Alabama basketball fans are feeling the sting of a fifth straight loss to Tennessee, and understandably so. Any time a rivalry game slips away - especially at home - it leaves a mark.
But from a broader, postseason-focused lens, this one doesn’t do too much damage. The Vols are a strong squad, and losing to quality opponents, even in your own gym, doesn’t tank your NCAA Tournament résumé.
As of Sunday morning, Alabama checked in at No. 22 in the NCAA NET rankings - right in line with their current projection as a 5-seed in March Madness. Within the SEC, only Vanderbilt (No.
13), Florida (No. 16), and Arkansas (No. 20) sit ahead of the Crimson Tide. Tennessee, despite the win, is just behind at No.
Look across the metrics, and the picture stays consistent. The Crimson Tide is as high as No. 18 in Kevin Pauga’s KPI rankings, and No. 19 in ESPN’s BPI, KenPom, and Bart Torvik’s models.
The NET has them at No. 22.
Bottom line: the computers still like Alabama - even after the Tennessee loss - and their tournament stock remains solid.
Still in the Hunt
What’s most important for Alabama is that every preseason goal is still very much on the table. The Tide is two games behind SEC leader Texas A&M in the loss column, with three teams sitting just one game back of the Aggies.
Five more teams - including Alabama - have three conference losses. That’s a tight race, and it means an SEC Tournament 1-seed is still within reach.
So is climbing to a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament.
With 12 SEC regular-season games left, there’s plenty of time to make a move. According to ESPN Analytics, Alabama is favored in seven of those matchups. The model has them falling short at Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, and Georgia - though that Georgia game is essentially a coin flip, with the Bulldogs given just a 50.8% edge.
One to circle: the home game against Texas A&M. Alabama is favored there with a 69.6% win probability.
That’s a potential swing game in the SEC title race, especially considering the Aggies currently sit at No. 41 in NET and No. 46 in KPI. It's a winnable game that could carry major implications.
Health Remains the X-Factor
Of course, nothing comes easy when you’re banged up. Alabama’s injury issues have been relentless this season, and that’s made it tough to find rhythm or consistency.
The loss to Tennessee could’ve looked a lot different if Aden Holloway and Amari Allen had been available. With a full, healthy rotation - especially their top eight or nine - this Alabama team has the talent and depth to beat anyone in the SEC and make a serious run in March.
The road ahead includes some favorable matchups, starting Tuesday against Missouri. Later home games against South Carolina and Mississippi State also look promising on paper. But with the injury bug still looming, no game is a guaranteed win.
Still, the pieces are in place. The metrics are strong, the goals are within reach, and if Alabama can get healthy and stay healthy, this is a team that no one will want to see come tournament time.