The Rose Bowl is set to deliver a clash that, on paper, looks like a mismatch-but dig a little deeper, and things get a lot more interesting. No.
1 Indiana enters the College Football Playoff as the top seed and the nation's only undefeated team, riding a wave of historic success under head coach Curt Cignetti. Alabama, meanwhile, finds itself in a rare spot: the underdog.
Yes, you read that right-Alabama, the program synonymous with dominance, is being given just a 28.6% chance to win by ESPN Analytics. And Jeff Sagarin’s model is even more bullish on Indiana, projecting a 66% chance of victory with a predicted score of 35-19 in favor of the Hoosiers.
There’s no question Indiana has earned its hype. Cignetti has turned the program around at warp speed.
Just two years removed from a 3-9 campaign under Tom Allen, Indiana now boasts a 24-2 record over the past two seasons. Cignetti has taken home AP Coach of the Year honors in both of those years, and his quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, has swept just about every major award you can name-Heisman, Maxwell, Davey O’Brien, Walter Camp, and AP Player of the Year.
That’s not just a good season; that’s an all-time campaign.
But when you zoom out from the headlines and into the numbers, the gap between Indiana and Alabama might not be as wide as the odds suggest.
Let’s start with history. Before Cignetti, Indiana had never posted a double-digit win season.
Their best finish was nine wins-twice-back in 1945 and 1967. That ’67 team made it to the Rose Bowl, but came up short.
No Indiana coach before Cignetti had ever won more than 59.4% of their games in Bloomington. For context, Lee Corso, who led the program for a decade, managed just 37.8%.
So yes, this is uncharted territory for the Hoosiers.
But that also raises a fair question: how much of Indiana’s success is a product of dominance, and how much is about who they've played?
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Indiana’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranks 28th in the country. Alabama?
Sixth. And if you ask Brian Fremeau, who calculates SOS based on how an average team would perform against a given schedule, Alabama tops the list as the toughest slate in college football.
Indiana comes in at No. 17 on that metric. That’s a meaningful difference, especially when you’re trying to measure how battle-tested a team really is.
Let’s break it down further with opponent-adjusted efficiency ratings (FEI), which help us compare wins based on how strong the opposition actually was.
Starting in Week 4, Indiana’s five best wins-based on offensive efficiency of their opponents-came against Oregon (No. 3), Ohio State (No.
9), Illinois (No. 17), Penn State (No. 23), and Iowa (No.
55). That’s four wins over Top 25 offenses, which is no small feat.
Alabama, over the same stretch, notched wins against Vanderbilt (No. 1 in offensive efficiency), Georgia (No. 8), Tennessee (No.
10), Missouri (No. 33), and Auburn (No. 51).
That gives the Crimson Tide three wins over Top 10 offenses, including the most efficient offense in the country.
Now flip it to the other side of the ball-defensive efficiency. Indiana’s top six wins came against Ohio State (No.
1), Oregon (No. 6), Iowa (No.
9), Wisconsin (No. 24), Maryland (No. 41), and Penn State (No.
42). That’s a strong list.
But Alabama’s resume here is even more impressive. The Tide beat Oklahoma (No.
4), LSU (No. 8), Auburn (No.
12), South Carolina (No. 14), Georgia (No. 15), and Missouri (No.
16). That’s six wins against Top 20 defenses.
No matter how you slice it, Alabama has faced and beaten better defenses than Indiana.
So what does all this mean heading into the Rose Bowl?
Indiana deserves to be the favorite. They’re undefeated, they’ve got the Heisman winner under center, and they’ve taken down some serious competition.
But Alabama has quietly built a resume that’s arguably more battle-tested. Their schedule has been tougher.
Their wins, especially against elite defenses, stack up well. And while they haven’t always played to their ceiling, they’ve shown they can beat top-tier opponents when it matters.
This isn’t your typical David vs. Goliath setup.
If anything, it’s more like two heavyweights, one with a shinier record and the other with a few more scars from the fight. Indiana has been nearly perfect.
Alabama has been forged in fire.
If the Crimson Tide show up close to their best, this game could be a lot closer than the models suggest. The Rose Bowl might not just be a proving ground for Indiana-it could be a reminder that Alabama, even as an underdog, is never out of the fight.