The College Football Playoff Dilemma: Why the System Still Can’t Get It Right
The College Football Playoff committee is once again staring down a problem that’s bigger than any one team - even Alabama. No matter how hard it tries, no matter how many hours are spent in those meeting rooms, the committee still can’t seem to consistently rank teams in a way that reflects what actually happens on the field. And that’s a problem that goes far beyond Tuscaloosa.
Let’s start with something simple: wins and losses. You’d think that would be the foundation of any ranking system. But the rankings we’ve seen - from the committee and across the AP and Coaches Polls - tell a different story.
Take Tennessee. The Vols have been a fixture in the AP Top 25 for most of the season.
But here’s the kicker: not one of their eight wins came against a ranked opponent. In fact, none of those eight wins came against a team with a winning record.
Yet, they’re still sitting at No. 24 in the Coaches Poll. That’s not just a head-scratcher - it’s a sign that the system isn’t just flawed; it’s fundamentally confused about what it values.
Then there’s James Madison. The Dukes are 11-1, and that record on its own looks impressive.
But let’s dig into the details. Their lone loss?
A two-touchdown defeat to an unranked Louisville team that also finished 8-4. And their wins?
They came against a slate that includes Weber State, Liberty, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Texas State, Marshall, App State, Washington State, and Coastal Carolina. Of that group, only one team has a winning record.
So here we are, with James Madison - a team that hasn’t beaten a single ranked opponent and whose strength of schedule is paper-thin - still in the playoff discussion. Meanwhile, programs like Miami and Vanderbilt, who’ve faced tougher slates, are essentially written off. Even North Texas has a clearer path to the playoff conversation than some Power Five programs with more competitive resumes.
This is where the fairness argument starts to fall apart. The playoff system is supposed to reward teams that prove themselves on the field - not just those with flashy records or favorable schedules. But when teams with weak résumés are ranked over battle-tested squads, it’s clear the system is valuing optics over substance.
The Mess at the Top
Now let’s talk about the elephant in the room - Alabama. If the Crimson Tide lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, there’s a very real chance they’ll be left out of the Playoff. And if that happens, the fallout could be seismic.
For Alabama fans, missing the playoff would be a gut punch. But the bigger issue is what it could mean for the future of the SEC Championship Game itself.
If losing in Atlanta means getting bounced from the national title picture - even after an elite season - why would any contender risk it? Why would a one-loss SEC team willingly put its playoff hopes on the line in a winner-take-all game, especially when other conferences don’t face the same level of danger?
That’s not just a hypothetical concern. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has made it clear in the past that he’s not afraid to push back if the conference is treated unfairly. If the committee punishes the loser of the SEC title game, it could spark a fundamental reevaluation of how the SEC approaches its postseason - or whether the league should even continue holding a championship game at all.
The Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about Alabama. Or Tennessee.
Or James Madison. It’s about a system that still hasn’t figured out how to balance record, schedule strength, and performance in a way that makes sense.
The College Football Playoff was supposed to bring clarity - a definitive way to crown the best team in the country. But right now, it feels more like a guessing game. And as long as teams with weak résumés are rewarded while top contenders are punished for playing tough opponents, the credibility of the rankings will continue to take hits.
The committee has a tough job. There’s no perfect formula.
But if the goal is fairness - real fairness - then it’s time to stop rewarding hollow records and start valuing what actually happens between the lines. Because at the end of the day, that’s what college football is supposed to be about.