When Oklahoma and Alabama square off in the first round of the College Football Playoff, it’s more than just a rematch - it’s a collision of two blueblood programs with everything on the line. But for all the history and hype, one question looms largest heading into this showdown: Can Oklahoma score enough to win?
That’s the central issue, according to FOX’s Joel Klatt, and it’s hard to argue with him. The Sooners haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard this season.
They’re averaging just 26.4 points per game - 77th in the nation - and when you dig deeper, the numbers get even more concerning. Oklahoma ranks 112th in offensive success rate, a stat that measures how consistently an offense stays on schedule.
For a Playoff team, that’s a red flag waving in high definition.
The offense has sputtered ever since quarterback John Mateer returned from a hand injury suffered during the Red River Rivalry earlier this season. While he’s brought stability, the explosiveness just hasn’t been there.
Still, Oklahoma has found ways to win. That includes a gritty 23-21 victory over this very Alabama team in Tuscaloosa last month - a game where the Sooners leaned on their defense and did just enough on offense to escape with the win.
They followed that up with two more wins, each time scoring just 17 points. So while the offense hasn’t been dynamic, the defense and special teams have stepped up, and the Sooners have shown they can win ugly - a trait that becomes especially valuable in the postseason.
But let’s not pretend Alabama doesn’t have its own issues.
“Bama’s been dealing with a lot. I think they’ve got some distractions,” Klatt noted.
“There’s some question about how their focus is going to be. The quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted.”
That’s a fair point. Alabama hasn’t looked like the machine we’ve come to expect in recent years.
Whether it’s off-field noise or inconsistency on the field, this Crimson Tide team has shown cracks. And in a game this tight - Oklahoma is a 1.5-point favorite, per BetMGM - those cracks could be the difference.
Klatt put it bluntly: “OU is elite in two of the three areas on their team. OU really struggles on offense. That’s the only thing in this game that gives me a lot of concern for Oklahoma.”
Translation: The Sooners’ defense and special teams are championship-caliber. The offense?
Still a work in progress. But if they can piece together just enough - get to 20 points, force a couple turnovers - they have a blueprint to win.
It’s the same formula they used in Tuscaloosa, and Klatt believes they can pull it off again.
“They find a way to get to 20 points,” he said. “They get a couple of turnovers and they win it very similarly to the one that they won in Tuscaloosa.”
We’ll find out soon enough. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m.
ET on Friday (ABC), and with a trip to the CFP semifinals on the line, expect both teams to come out swinging. For Oklahoma, the path is clear - but not easy.
Score just enough, let the defense do its thing, and maybe - just maybe - the Sooners punch their ticket to the next round.