Alabama gets another chance to reset the narrative on Saturday, and this one comes with a familiar edge: Florida State is back on the schedule after upsetting the Tide a season ago. This time, the game is in Tuscaloosa, and FanDuel opened Alabama as an 18.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 50.5.
That number feels a little light if Alabama carries over what it showed against Kentucky. After a sluggish opening stretch, the Crimson Tide rolled past the Wildcats 45-17 on the road.
Daniel Hill’s 104 rushing yards played a major role in that win and helped take some of the burden off quarterback Keelon Russell. For anyone tracking the betting angle, the earlier -10.5 number in that game would have been a nice ticket.
Florida State enters this one with a mixed resume through two games. The Seminoles opened against New Mexico State and never really separated until late, finally pulling away with a touchdown in the final four minutes to win 34-17. Then came a 27-24 loss to SMU in Tallahassee, a game in which the Mustangs overcame four turnovers to hand FSU the defeat.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels has completed 58% of his passes over those two games, with two touchdown throws and one interception. On the ground, Ousmane Kromah has posted 115 and 116 rushing yards in the Seminoles’ first two outings.
The Florida State defense has been decent against the run, allowing 47 rushing yards to New Mexico State and 155 to SMU. The problem has been the pass defense. New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and two scores, and SMU was even more damaging with 430 passing yards and three touchdowns.
The Seminoles have also been a rough read for bettors so far. They failed to cover either FanDuel spread and landed below the Over/Under in both games.
Alabama, meanwhile, has already shown how quickly its numbers can move when the offense gets rolling. The final spread before kickoff against East Carolina was Alabama -27.5 with an Over/Under of 52.5.
Against Kentucky, the Tide were listed at -10.5 with an Over/Under of 48.5. Both lines were blown apart.
Russell is still working through some youthful mistakes, but the progress is there. The offense found its rhythm in the second half against Kentucky, and this Alabama team looks capable of scoring in bunches.
The defense has a few things to clean up as well, though it still looks like one of the nation’s best. Georgia is still several weeks down the road, and that matchup will tell a much bigger story.
For now, Alabama draws a Florida State team that is a step down from Kentucky but better than ECU.
Florida State does get the benefit of a week off to rest and study Alabama. The Tide, on the other hand, are likely to have right guard Michael Carroll back, which would be a boost up front.
With the line sitting at Alabama -18.5 and the total at 50.5, a final score in the neighborhood of 35-16 or 34-16 would fit the setup.
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Alabama's Running Back Picture Just Got More Complicated
Daniel Hill gave Alabama a clear answer in the run game against Kentucky, handling the bulk of the work and finishing with 104 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The performance stood out not just because of the production, but because it came with the kind of steady, dependable feel the Crimson Tide have been looking for as the backfield sorts itself out.
Ryan Grubb and Kalen DeBoer both praised Hills work ethic and the way he seized the moment, but the bigger picture is still taking shape behind him. EJ Crowell and Traeshawn Brown continue to develop, and AK Dear is expected back from injury, leaving Alabama with a backfield that suddenly looks deeper and more interesting than it did a week ago. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Just Answered One Doubt Critics Kept Pushing
Kirk Herbstreits pick of Kentucky over Alabama had plenty of company from people still waiting to see whether Kalen DeBoers team could absorb a few early hiccups and still impose itself. The skepticism made some sense after Alabamas uneven stretches, but the Crimson Tide showed a different edge once the game settled in, turning a shaky start into a decisive win with a strong second half.
For Alabama, the bigger takeaway was not just the result but the way it arrived. A team that had been questioned for its resilience answered by staying composed after its early mistakes, and that matters as much as any pregame forecast. Herbstreit leaned on past performances, but this group is starting to look more like a DeBoer team than a snapshot from what came before. [Read more 🡒]
Alabamas Kentucky Win Didnt End The Tides Biggest Debate
A 45-17 win over Kentucky should have been the kind of afternoon that settles a few things early in September, and in some ways it did for Alabama. The Crimson Tide rolled past the Wildcats in Week 2, then climbed to No. 10 in the AP Poll, a nice boost after opening the season with some uncertainty still hanging around the program.
Keelon Russells second career start, though, kept the biggest conversation alive. The quarterback threw for 188 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, a line that showed both the promise and the rough edges that come with a young passer trying to find his footing. Alabama got the result it wanted, but the question of how steady the offense can be when the competition gets tougher is still very much open. [Read more 🡒]