College Football Playoff Picture: Texas on the Outside, Alabama in a Tough Spot, and Chaos Still Looms
Rivalry Week didn’t deliver the kind of all-out mayhem we’ve seen in past years, but it still gave us plenty to talk about-just not the kind of shakeups that would’ve cracked the College Football Playoff (CFP) wide open. Most of the favorites held serve, and the drama that did unfold came more from the sidelines than the scoreboard.
Let’s start with the off-field bombshell: A head coach from a CFP-bound program spent three days holding his team-and frankly, the entire college football world-hostage while deciding whether to jump ship to a bitter rival. He ultimately made the move, but not before insisting on coaching his now-former team one last time. It was the kind of coaching carousel chaos that only college football can deliver.
But on the field? Chalk mostly held.
Ohio State finally got the monkey off its back, snapping Michigan’s four-game win streak in The Game. Georgia took care of business against Georgia Tech in Atlanta, and Alabama survived a classic Iron Bowl scare.
The only team in last week’s projected CFP field to stumble? Texas A&M.
Texas Wins, But Not Enough Help
Texas did what it had to do, beating Texas A&M on Friday night to keep the Aggies out of the SEC Championship. At 11-1, Mike Elko’s squad is still a lock for an at-large playoff bid, but for Texas, the story is more complicated.
The Longhorns now boast wins over Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt-solid, but not enough to erase the damage of a three-loss season. Steve Sarkisian has made his case, arguing that Texas shouldn’t be penalized for starting the season with a loss at Ohio State. And he’s not wrong-losing to a top-tier team early in the year shouldn’t be a death sentence.
But that’s not what’s keeping Texas out of the top four.
This team is being held back by a loss to a Florida squad that finished with just four wins. They needed overtime to scrape past both Kentucky and Mississippi State in back-to-back weeks. And let’s not forget the blowout loss to Georgia in Athens-that one still stings.
In a season where the final week didn’t deliver the chaos Texas needed, the Longhorns are left on the outside looking in. Oklahoma flirted with disaster against LSU, Alabama had to dig deep to escape Auburn, and Oregon let Washington hang around longer than they should have. But all three came out with wins, and that’s what matters most this time of year.
When you’ve got three losses, even if one of them came against the defending champs on their turf, you’re going to need some help to crack the CFP. Texas didn’t get it.
Alabama’s Tightrope Walk
There’s still room for chaos, though, and Alabama might be the team walking the thinnest line.
Let’s start with the ACC. Duke, somehow, is in the conference title game despite five losses. If the Blue Devils pull off an upset over Virginia in Charlotte, that could open the door for the American Athletic Conference champ and James Madison-if the Dukes win the Sun Belt-to sneak into the CFP as the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions.
That scenario would fill out the bracket with teams unlikely to make a deep run, but it would still shake up the selection order.
The real chaos agent? BYU.
If the Cougars avenge their earlier loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Big 12 could suddenly become a two-bid league. That’s where things get dicey for Alabama.
The Crimson Tide are sitting at No. 10, just behind Notre Dame, heading into the SEC Championship Game. If Alabama loses to Georgia, the committee is going to have a tough decision to make.
Do they drop Notre Dame to make room for Alabama? Or does Alabama get left out entirely?
That’s a question Tide fans don’t want answered. Their best hope? Beat Georgia, plain and simple.
If Kalen DeBoer can extend his hot streak over Kirby Smart, a two-loss Alabama team could vault into the top four and grab a first-round bye. That’s the path. Anything else, and they’re hoping for chaos-and hoping the committee sees something in their résumé that justifies a leapfrog.
Final Thoughts
The regular season didn’t end with fireworks, but the postseason picture is far from settled. Texas is out, Alabama is hanging by a thread, and a few under-the-radar teams still have a shot to shake things up. Conference championship weekend is going to be wild, and the committee’s job is only getting harder.
Buckle up. December football is here, and the stakes have never been higher.