Charles Bediako’s eligibility battle is heading to court on Friday, and with SEC commissioner Greg Sankey siding with the NCAA, the odds aren’t exactly in Alabama’s favor. Whether Bediako suits up or not for Saturday’s Iron Bowl showdown at Neville Arena, there’s a deeper issue brewing for the Crimson Tide-one that didn’t cost them against Texas A&M, but could be a real problem against Auburn.
Alabama’s Pace vs. Auburn’s Patience
Nate Oats has built his program around speed. Not just fast-blazing.
Alabama ranks in the 99th percentile nationally in pace, and it shows. On Wednesday night, the Tide racked up 23 fast break points against Texas A&M, their highest total since a December blowout win over UTSA.
That kind of tempo is Alabama’s comfort zone. They want a track meet, and they usually get it.
But Auburn isn’t likely to play along.
Under Steven Pearl, the Tigers have been dialing things down. Auburn currently sits in the 61st percentile in pace, but more telling is their recent trend-just 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes over their last five games, good for the 35th percentile nationally.
That’s a clear shift toward a more methodical, half-court style. And when they slow it down, they force opponents to grind.
Nearly 80% of the field goal attempts Auburn allows come in half-court sets.
That’s where things get tricky for Alabama.
This Alabama Team Needs Transition to Thrive
Oats’s best teams have been able to adapt-run when they can, but also pick apart defenses in the half-court when needed. This year’s squad hasn’t shown that same versatility. They’re heavily dependent on transition offense, and when the game slows down, their efficiency dips-especially around the rim.
Even with Bediako back in the mix, Alabama’s interior scoring has taken a hit. Over the last five games, their field goal percentage at the rim and in the paint has dropped.
Stretch that sample to ten games (including Bediako’s four appearances), and the Tide are shooting under 60% at the rim. More concerning?
They’re converting under 40% of their shots in half-court sets.
Some of that is by design. Alabama lives and dies by the three, ranking in the 100th percentile in three-point attempt rate. That naturally lowers their overall shooting percentage, but they still manage to post a 95th percentile offensive rating-a testament to the value of high-volume, high-efficiency threes.
Still, without a consistent rim threat or a lob option to collapse defenses in the half-court, those open looks from beyond the arc are harder to generate. That’s why Bediako’s presence matters-not just for his size, but for what he can do to draw defenders and open up the floor.
The Iron Bowl Chess Match
So what does this all mean for Saturday? If Auburn can control the tempo, keep Alabama out of transition, and force them into a half-court grind, the Tide could be in for a long afternoon-regardless of Bediako’s status. But if he’s ruled ineligible, the challenge becomes even steeper.
Alabama’s offensive engine runs best at full throttle. Auburn’s looking to cut the power. It’s a classic clash of styles, and the outcome may hinge less on star power and more on who dictates the pace.