After two straight letdowns, Alabama heads back home trying to reset the season and straighten out an offense that has gone cold at the worst possible time. The Crimson Tide are 5-2, but the margin for error is gone now. If Alabama is going to keep even a faint College Football Playoff hope alive, it has to run the table from here, starting with a home date against Texas A&M.
The matchup arrives with a very different feel than it did in the preseason. Back then, Alabama was a 2.5-point favorite over the Aggies. Now FanDuel has the Tide laying 15.5 with an over/under of 50.5.
That jump says plenty about where these teams are right now. Alabama opened the season with five high-scoring wins, then hit a wall over the last two games, managing only 17 points against Georgia and 10 against Tennessee.
The defense didn’t completely fall apart, but the offense absolutely did. Poor field position made things harder, and the result was a flat-out ugly stretch for Bama.
Texas A&M has had its own problems on that side of the ball. The Aggies are 4-3, and the sportsbook numbers have been asking a lot of them all season. In seven games, the spreads and totals have often landed too high, and the results have backed that up more often than not.
Here’s how those games have played out against the number:
Sep 5 vs Missouri State: -40.5 / 53.5, Won 50-0 (-50, 50) Won ATS / Under O/U
Sep 12 vs Arizona State: -14.5 / 51.5, Won 48-20 (-28, 68) Won / Over
Sep 19 vs Kentucky: -17 / 48.5, Lost 21-31 (+10, 52) Lost / Over
Sep 26 @LSU: +8.5 / 52.5, Lost 6-35 (+29, 41) Lost / Under
Oct 3 vs Arkansas: -13.5 / 50.5, Won 34-7 (-27, 41) Won / Under
Oct 10 @Missouri: +4.5 / 50.5, Lost 6-27 (+21, 33) Lost / Under
Oct 17 vs The Citadel: -45.5 / 56.5, Won 41-0 (-41, 41) Lost / Under
The bigger issue has been conference play. After the first two weeks, Texas A&M’s scoring has been underwhelming, especially in SEC games.
In its three conference losses, the Aggies put up 21, 6 and 6 points, with the last two coming on the road. The only SEC win came at home against Arkansas, which has not exactly been a sturdy measuring stick.
As things stand, TAMU is tied with Vanderbilt for last in the SEC in conference scoring at 16.75 points per game. Even Oklahoma has scored more at 17.67 points per SEC game. On defense, the Aggies have been middle of the pack in conference play, ranking eighth while allowing 25.0 points per game.
That sets up an odd-looking number for a game involving Alabama. If you trust the market, the projection points toward something around 33-17 for the Tide, which would fit the spread and total neatly enough. But there’s at least some reason to wonder whether that’s too generous for Alabama right now, especially after the way the last two games have gone.
Texas A&M does not bring much firepower, but Alabama has now dropped two straight “Super Bowls,” and that’s where the conversation turns to the what-ifs. Could the Aggies come in fired up for the matchup?
Could A&M quarterback Marcel Reed have his “Stephen Garcia moment” before he begins his career at State Farm? Can Keelon Russell get his mojo back?
Is there any chance star receiver Ryan Williams returns and is effective?
The lean here is toward a tighter, lower-scoring game than the opening line suggests. A 27-17 result feels more plausible, and that would stay under both the spread and the total.
In Other News...
Tennessee's Celebration Just Added Another Twist To This Alabama Rivalry
Tennessees latest win over Alabama already carried the usual rivalry weight, and now it has come with an SEC penalty attached. The league fined the Volunteers $500,000 after fans rushed the field following the victory, a scene that has become familiar in college football but still runs afoul of conference policy when it crosses the line into the competition area.
For Alabama, the detail that stands out is where that money is headed. The fine will be paid to the Crimson Tide, while Tennessee does have a path to argue for a reduction if it can show it took steps to prevent the breach or that contact was minimal. The SEC also leaves room for schools to stage on-field celebrations, but only if they submit procedures in advance and get them approved, which gives this rivalry another layer of paperwork to go with the emotion. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Faces A Brutal Truth After Tennessee Exposed This Weakness
Alabamas trip to Tennessee turned into a blunt reminder of where things stand after a 26-10 loss that sent the Crimson Tide into consecutive regular-season defeats for the first time since 2007. ESPN analyst Greg McElroy pointed to the line of scrimmage as the defining issue, with Tennessee dictating play and Alabama unable to match the Volunteers physical edge.
The offensive problems only made the night harder to absorb, as turnovers and an ineffective rushing attack left Alabama searching for answers. Tennessees strong ground game helped control the flow throughout, and now the Tide head into an important rebound spot against Texas A&M with pressure to respond quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Faces A Bigger Question Than Just The Tennessee Loss
Alabamas 26-10 loss to Tennessee would have been enough to force a reset on its own, but the bigger issue coming out of the weekend is the injury list that kept the Crimson Tide from looking like itself. Head coach Kalen DeBoer spent time afterward updating the status of Zabien Brown, EJ Crowell, Ryan Coleman-Williams, Racin Delgatty and Terrance Green, a reminder that the season is being shaped not just by results, but by who is available to take the field.
The encouraging part for Alabama is that the group is being handled on a week-to-week basis, with some players expected back at practice soon. Still, until those bodies return and the Tide can see how quickly they regain rhythm, the conversation around the program is going to be about depth, availability and whether the roster can stabilize fast enough to keep the loss from turning into something more lasting. [Read more 🡒]