Alabama Getting Healthy at the Right Time, But Rain Could Tip the Scales vs. Indiana
As Alabama gears up for its College Football Playoff quarterfinal clash with No. 1 Indiana, the biggest storyline might not be the matchup itself - it’s the weather forecast. And for once, it’s not favoring the Crimson Tide.
Let’s start with the good news for Alabama fans: the injury report is finally trending in the right direction. After limping through the SEC Championship with what felt like half the roster in the training room, the Tide are nearly back to full strength.
Aside from JC Latham and James Smith Beaman, both of whom were lost for the season earlier in the year, Alabama is expected to have all key contributors available. That includes defensive end LT Overton, who returns after a mysterious illness sidelined him for three games, and running back Kevin Riley, who’s back from a broken jaw.
That’s a huge boost for a team that’s had to dig deep into its depth chart over the past month. But just as Alabama gets healthy, a new challenge rolls in - and it’s coming straight from the California skies.
Forecast: Rain, and Possibly Trouble for Alabama
According to Lewis, who works with Future Fans Sports, there's a bit of irony in the forecast.
“You know what the best part of it is?” he said with a grin.
“It’s gonna rain at the Rose Bowl. And that somehow favors Indiana.
Because they can run the football. They can be physical in the trenches.”
He’s not wrong. This Indiana team isn’t just a feel-good story with a shiny No. 1 next to its name - they’re built to control games on the ground. Indiana ranks 10th in the nation in rushing, averaging 221.2 yards per game behind an offensive line that’s been moving bodies all season.
Compare that to Alabama’s ground game, which has been a glaring weak spot. The Tide rank 120th in rushing offense and have only topped Indiana’s average once all season - a 269-yard outing against Eastern Illinois. And that came on 49 carries.
If the rain turns this game into a ground-and-pound slugfest, the edge on paper clearly goes to Indiana.
Rain Doesn’t Just Affect the Passing Game
There’s a common belief that rain favors the team that can run the ball better. Statistically, it’s true that quarterback completion percentages drop by about 2.5% in wet conditions. But the impact goes far beyond the air attack.
Rain makes everything harder - ball security, footing, blocking angles. Running backs and defenders alike are more prone to slipping.
Offensive linemen can struggle to plant and drive. In short, it levels the playing field.
Mistakes become more common. Upsets become more possible.
That’s where Indiana’s identity could shine through. They’ve won all year by being physical, methodical, and balanced. If the conditions force both teams into a grind-it-out game, Indiana is more comfortable living in that world.
Alabama’s First-Ever Matchup with Indiana Comes with Some History
This is the first time Alabama and Indiana will face off on the football field - a surprising stat considering the storied history of both programs. Alabama sits third all-time in wins with 985, trailing only Michigan (1,021) and Ohio State (990).
But here’s a fun wrinkle: 142 of those Michigan and Ohio State wins came against Indiana. Now it’s Alabama’s turn to see what the Hoosiers are all about.
Meanwhile, a Portal Shakeup on the Plains
Elsewhere in the state, Auburn star wide receiver Cam Coleman is heading to the NCAA transfer portal. The former five-star recruit is expected to be the top wideout available when the portal officially opens on Friday. He’s still got two years of eligibility left, but NFL scouts already have him circled as a major prospect for next year’s draft.
Naturally, the rumor mill is already churning. Alabama just hired Auburn’s former offensive coordinator to coach its wide receivers.
Could that connection play a role in Coleman’s decision-making? Too early to say.
But what we do know is this: Coleman’s final play in an Auburn uniform sure looked like something that would’ve made Alabama fans smile.
And Finally, a Bit of Sideline Humor from Kane Wommack
Before we wrap, let’s talk about Kane Wommack’s press conference - and more specifically, his now-infamous gameday shoulder bag.
“There is no fanny pack,” Wommack said with a laugh. “It’s got all my power pack stuff on the back.
So there’s no pouch or anything for me to put my lip balms or essential oils or whatever. But it’s got my radio, the communication piece, and the ‘easy button’ up top.”
That “easy button” is how Wommack communicates with players like Deontae Lawson and Justin Jefferson on the field. But no, he’s not carrying snacks. That rumor can officially be put to rest.
Bottom Line
Alabama’s getting healthy at just the right time, but the elements could be the great equalizer in Pasadena. Indiana’s physicality and run game are built for the kind of gritty football that rain games demand. Alabama still has the talent to impose its will - but it may need to do it in the muck.
As always, the Rose Bowl delivers drama. This time, it might come with a downpour.