SEC Bracketology Update: Alabama Holds Steady, Bubble Teams Crowd the Dance Floor
With Selection Sunday still a couple of months away, the bracketology buzz is already heating up - and the SEC is right in the thick of it. While there’s a growing belief that the conference might send fewer teams to the NCAA Tournament than it did last season, the early projections still show a strong SEC presence. Ten teams from the conference are currently slotted into the field, with another knocking on the door.
Let’s break it down.
Alabama’s Familiar Path
Alabama fans will recognize the seed line - a 4-seed, just like last year. That path, of course, led to the program’s historic first Final Four appearance.
This time around, the Crimson Tide is projected in the West Region, alongside some familiar and formidable company: Arizona as the 1-seed, Gonzaga as the 2, and Michigan State as the 3. It’s a loaded bracket, but also an intriguing one.
Alabama wouldn’t mind another shot at the Zags or the Tigers - both programs that have shared the national spotlight with the Tide in recent years.
Vanderbilt Leads the SEC Pack
The highest-seeded SEC team in the current projection? That would be Vanderbilt, sitting at a 3-seed in the Midwest Region.
It’s a testament to the Commodores’ strong start and consistency through the early part of the season. Right behind them are a pair of 5-seeds: Florida in the South Region and Arkansas in the Midwest.
Georgia is holding steady as a 7-seed in the East, while Tennessee is just a tick lower at 8 in the South.
Life on the Bubble
Here’s where things get crowded. The SEC has four teams currently projected in the field who are living life on the bubble, and one more just outside it.
Kentucky and Texas A&M are both slotted in as 9-seeds - squarely in that middle ground where a couple of losses could send you tumbling, but a strong February could lock you in. Auburn is a 10-seed in the West, while Missouri is hanging on as an 11-seed, which would mean a play-in game to start the tournament.
Just outside the field? Texas, sitting as the third team in the “First Four Out” group.
That’s a spot no team wants to be in come March.
Florida Favored in the SEC Race
While bracket projections dominate the conversation, ESPN’s BPI model offers a different kind of insight - one focused on regular-season conference titles. According to the model, Florida is the heavy favorite to win the SEC, with a 74.3% chance of taking the crown. Only two other teams - Vanderbilt (14.9%) and Alabama (12.6%) - are given a double-digit shot.
As for the rest of the league? Seven teams, including Auburn, are given less than a 1% chance of winning the regular-season title. It’s a reminder of how top-heavy the race is shaping up to be, even as the tournament field remains wide open.
What It All Means
We’re still in January, and bracketology is a moving target - projections will shift weekly, sometimes daily, as teams pick up quality wins or suffer untimely losses. But what we’re seeing right now is a conference that, while perhaps not as deep as last season, still has the potential to make serious noise in March.
Alabama’s looking to build on its Final Four run. Vanderbilt is surging.
Florida has the inside track in the regular-season race. And the bubble?
Well, the bubble is as SEC as it gets - crowded, unpredictable, and full of potential.
Stay tuned. The next couple of months are going to be fun.