After getting run out of the gym by Florida just two weeks ago, Alabama basketball has flipped the script in a big way. The Crimson Tide have rattled off four straight wins-taking down Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina-and that surge has them right back in the thick of things, both in the SEC and on the national radar.
That bounce-back stretch hasn’t just restored confidence in Tuscaloosa-it’s also caught the attention of bracketologists. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, one of the most trusted voices when it comes to NCAA Tournament projections, now has Alabama climbing up to a 4-seed in his latest bracket update. That’s a bump from the 5-line where the Tide had been hovering.
In Lunardi’s current projection, Alabama is slotted as the final 4-seed in the East Region. That would set them up for a first-round matchup against Big South frontrunner High Point-currently ranked 90th in KenPom.
And if the bracket holds, things could get spicy fast. A potential second-round showdown looms with 5-seed St.
John’s, a team Alabama already faced earlier this season. And waiting in the Sweet 16?
None other than Duke, in what would be a rematch of last year’s Elite Eight clash.
But before any of that becomes reality, Alabama has some business to handle in the SEC. And that starts with a massive showdown on Wednesday night when Arkansas comes to town.
This one’s circled on the calendar for a reason. Both teams are jockeying for position in a crowded SEC race and on the NCAA Tournament seed line.
Alabama, riding that four-game win streak, sits at 8-4 in conference play-tied with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky for third place. Arkansas holds a slight edge at 9-3, trailing only Florida, who leads the pack at 10-2.
A win on Wednesday would be more than just another notch in the win column-it would be a statement. Alabama and Arkansas are neck-and-neck in Lunardi’s bracket, with the Tide at No. 16 overall (the last 4-seed) and the Razorbacks right behind at No. 18 (a projected 5-seed).
If Arkansas walks into Coleman Coliseum and pulls off the upset, it’s a safe bet those spots will flip. But if Alabama holds serve at home, they not only stay on the 4-line-they might start nudging into 3-seed territory.
Beyond the bracket, this game has major implications for the SEC Tournament. The top four teams get a coveted double-bye, and Alabama’s right in that mix. Beating Arkansas would give them a critical edge in the standings and the tiebreaker conversation.
And make no mistake-this is one of the toughest games left on Alabama’s schedule. Arkansas is currently the highest-ranked team left on the Tide’s slate according to KenPom (No.
17). Yes, a trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee in two weeks might be the bigger challenge on paper, but this matchup with Arkansas is every bit as important.
Bottom line: Alabama is playing its best basketball at the right time, but the margin for error is razor-thin. Win on Wednesday, and the Tide are in prime position to secure a double-bye in the SEC Tournament and keep climbing the NCAA seed ladder. Lose, and suddenly that 4-seed ceiling starts to feel a lot more like a cap-and the path to postseason success gets a whole lot steeper.