SEC play has hit Alabama basketball like a cold front in February-sudden, sharp, and hard to ignore. After getting thoroughly outplayed in Gainesville in a 23-point loss to Florida, the Crimson Tide is now sitting at an even 4-4 in conference play.
And if we’re being honest, that Florida game didn’t just look like a loss-it felt like a low point. Alabama wasn’t just outscored; it was outmuscled and outmatched.
That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that came into the new year riding high. Alabama had built momentum with marquee non-conference wins over St.
John’s and Illinois, and head coach Nate Oats wasn’t shy about setting big expectations. But since the calendar flipped to 2026, the wheels have started to wobble.
The team’s identity-fast-paced, high-octane offense with just enough defensive grit-hasn’t consistently shown up in SEC play.
The struggles have started to show up in the rankings, too. On Monday, Alabama dropped out of the AP Top 25 for the first time in two years, snapping the second-longest poll streak in program history. And while the Crimson Tide isn’t in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, the seeding outlook has taken a hit.
Alabama trending toward a 5-seed - but slipping is still in play
Right now, Alabama is hovering between a 5- and 6-seed in most NCAA Tournament projections. Bracket Matrix has them averaging out at a 5.22 seed-second among all projected 5-seeds, just behind Virginia. That’s not panic territory, but it’s far from the top-tier status this team was flirting with back in December.
Joe Lunardi has Alabama pegged as a 5-seed in the South Region. In his latest bracket, the Tide would open against 12-seeded Stephen F.
Austin, the current favorite in the Southland Conference. That’s a classic 5-12 matchup-always dangerous.
If Alabama advances, a potential second-round clash with BYU and standout freshman A.J. Dybantsa looms.
And beyond that? UConn and Houston headline the region as the 1- and 2-seeds, with Nebraska slotted in at 3.
That’s a gauntlet.
Meanwhile, CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has Alabama sliding just a bit further, down to the 6-seed line. That would mark the lowest seed the Tide has earned since 2022.
That year, they were bounced in the first round by 11-seed Notre Dame-a rare early exit under Oats. In Palm’s projection, Alabama would face 11-seeded New Mexico in the West Region, with Michigan State waiting in the second round.
Again, not an easy road.
A pivotal week ahead
The good news? Alabama has a real chance to steady the ship this week-and it starts at home.
Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night, and while the Aggies have had their ups and downs, they’re still a projected tournament team. That’s a resume-builder if Alabama can take care of business.
Then comes a trip to Auburn for the first installment of this season’s Iron Bowl of basketball. That rivalry always brings the heat, but this year, it carries extra weight. A win on the road against a ranked in-state rival could be exactly the kind of spark Alabama needs to get back on track.
The margin for error is shrinking, but the opportunity is right there. Two wins this week could shift the tone of the season and help the Tide reclaim their footing in the SEC race-and just as importantly, in the eyes of the Selection Committee.