Alabama Basketball Bracketology: Where the Crimson Tide Stand and What It Means for March
With just eight regular-season games left on the schedule, Alabama Basketball is sitting in a strong position when it comes to March Madness. The Crimson Tide are essentially a lock for the NCAA Tournament - 99.9% according to the projections - and that’s despite navigating a portion of the season without Charles Bediako. The Selection Committee isn’t likely to hold those five games against them, especially given the team's overall body of work.
But here’s where things get interesting: making the tournament is one thing, but making a run in it? That’s where seeding becomes critical. It's not just about getting in - it's about where you're slotted.
Let’s break it down. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, the difference between a 3-seed and a 7-seed has been massive in terms of success.
A 3-seed averages 1.84 wins per tournament, while a 7-seed averages less than one. Want to get to the Elite Eight?
Historically, 3-seeds have a 25.6% shot. For 7-seeds, that number drops to just 6.3%.
And if you’re talking about the difference between a 2-seed and a 10-seed? It’s even more lopsided - 2.34 wins on average versus just 0.60.
Right now, Alabama is projected as a 5-seed across most major bracketology models. That’s solid positioning, and frankly, it reflects the rollercoaster nature of their season - a team that can look elite one night and out of sync the next. The talent is there, but consistency is what will determine how high they climb - both in the seeding and in the tournament itself.
Several key bracketologists are weighing in. Joe Lunardi, one of the most well-known voices in the space, has Alabama as a 5-seed.
So do most of the projections in the Bracket Matrix - a comprehensive aggregate that compiles over 100 bracket predictions to give a broader view of consensus. Bart Torvik’s T-Ranketology, which leans predictive, also puts Alabama on the 5-line.
One outlier? DJ Bauer, who has the Crimson Tide bumped up to a 4-seed in the East Region.
In that scenario, Alabama would open against UNC-Wilmington in Portland, with a potential second-round matchup against the winner of 5-seed Texas Tech and 12-seed Liberty. The 1-seed in that region?
Duke - a heavyweight matchup that could loom if Alabama advances far enough.
Zooming out to the SEC picture, Alabama is right in the thick of things. According to the Bracket Matrix, Florida is sitting as a 3-seed, Vanderbilt as a 4, and Alabama and Tennessee both on the 5-line.
Arkansas comes in as a 6-seed, Kentucky at 7, Auburn at 8, with Texas A&M and Georgia slotted as 9-seeds. Missouri is currently riding the bubble, with Lunardi listing them among his “First Four Out.”
Texas, meanwhile, is still in the projected field.
So what does it all mean for Alabama? They’re in.
That’s not the concern. But the next few weeks are about fine-tuning, stacking quality wins, and avoiding the kind of slip-ups that can turn a 4 or 5-seed into a 6 or 7.
Because come March, those margins matter. A better seed can mean a smoother path, and in a tournament where one cold shooting night can send you packing, every edge counts.
The Tide have the pieces. Now it’s about putting them together at the right time.