The Toronto Blue Jays finally had a day where the bats showed up in a big way, but one loud afternoon did nothing to hide the bigger issue hanging over this team.
On Saturday, Toronto pounded out 15 hits and put up five runs in the third inning on the way to a 6-0 win over the Boston Red Sox. Dylan Cease barely needed the help, finishing a one-hit shutout. For one game, the offense looked alive.
But the season-long numbers tell a much harsher story. Toronto enters July 26 at 48-57, 13.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and 5.5 games out of a wild-card spot. The main reason for that slide has been an offense that has simply not held up.
A post from VOT6 on X (formerly Twitter) put the Blue Jays at an 85 team OPS+, which would be their lowest mark in the 14-season sample size. Baseball-Reference had the number at 86 after Saturday’s game because of a live update. Either way, the point is the same: with 100 set as league average, Toronto has been about 14% worse than that baseline after adjustments.
The Blue Jays also enter July 26 ranked last in the Majors with a .683 OPS. Three teams are tied just behind them at .684.
Even more telling, none of Toronto’s qualified hitters has an OPS above .800. That leaves the lineup without the kind of depth or dependable centerpiece that can carry an offense through long stretches.
This isn’t just about needing one slugger to do everything. Toronto’s best offenses have worked because they had a clear headliner backed by enough talent that opponents couldn’t simply pitch around him.
The 2015 team posted a 115 OPS+ with AL MVP Josh Donaldson leading a stacked middle of the order. José Bautista hit .250/.377/.536 with 40 home runs and 114 RBIs, while Edwin Encarnación added 34 homers and a .901 OPS. Six years later, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered a 48-homer season with help from Marcus Semien’s 45 home runs and .873 OPS, Teoscar Hernández’s 32 homers and Bo Bichette’s AL-leading 191 hits as Toronto finished with a 113 team OPS+.
That’s not what this year’s group looks like. Guerrero has not delivered at that level and sits at a 94 OPS+.
Kazuma Okamoto leads the team with 23 home runs, but his .754 OPS has not given Toronto a steady second force. Ernie Clement (.748 OPS), George Springer (.708) and Daulton Varsho (.692) have all been asked to do more than support work, and the lineup still hasn’t found the kind of balance that defined Toronto’s better clubs.
The injury list has only made the problem worse. Addison Barger is expected to miss the rest of the year after elbow surgery, Anthony Santander has been working back from shoulder labral surgery, and Jesús Sánchez and Jonatan Clase are also on the injured list.
That thin margin matters even more when the pitching or defense slips. Cease has seen both sides of that equation.
Saturday was easy enough once Toronto gave him six runs, but his April 15 start against Milwaukee showed the other side. He allowed two hits over six scoreless innings and left with a 1-0 lead, only for the Blue Jays to go quiet and lose 2-1 after the Brewers rallied in the eighth.
Saturday was the rare night when Toronto’s lineup looked like it could pressure a game from top to bottom. The 86 OPS+ says that kind of performance has been far too rare. Until the Blue Jays find both a true anchor and enough help around him, outbursts like this will keep feeling like exceptions.
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Gausman also has some leverage in any possible move, with reported no-trade protection to eight teams, and he is owed the remainder of his $23 million salary for the season. For a Blue Jays club trying to sort out its direction, that makes him more than just another veteran arm on the staff. It turns him into one of the more complicated names to track as August 3 approaches. [Read more 🡒]