The Rays opened the American League Championship Series with a loss to the Cleveland Guardians on Monday night at Tropicana Field, and that result pushed Chandler Simpson into the center of the conversation.
The question now is whether Tampa Bay should keep starting Simpson in the postseason, especially when left-handed pitching is involved. Sports Director at 10 Tampa Bay News Evan Closky came down hard on the side of sitting him.
Closky’s case started with a simple, eye-catching point: in the two playoff games this year that Simpson did not play, the player who took his place delivered a home run.
“He didn’t play in the final game at Yankee Stadium. In that game, Ryan Vilade hit a home run,” Closky pointed out.
“He didn’t play last night, and even as a defensive replacement, Cedric Mullins hit a home run. That’s two more home runs than you wouldn’t have had if Chandler Simpson was playing all those innings.”
“We don’t know what would have happened if Chandler Simpson hit, but we do know it wouldn’t have been a home run.”
That’s the heart of the debate for Tampa Bay right now. Simpson is coming off a 2026 regular season in which he hit .306, the second-best average in the American League, but power has never been part of his game. He does not have a home run in 260 big league games.
Closky put it bluntly: “The fact is, what we know, is that [the Rays] got two homers because Chandler Simpson was replaced with those options,” Closky said.
And in October, that kind of punch matters. The Rays are looking for something immediate, something that can flip a game with one swing. That was on display in Game 3 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees, when Vilade’s homer came in a 4-3 win.
There’s also the matchup element. Closky noted that Simpson’s speed gives Tampa Bay another weapon, but his value on the bases is less clear when left-handers are on the mound. Of his 46 stolen bases in the 2026 regular season, only 13 came against left-handed pitchers.
Vilade, meanwhile, offers the sort of pop the Rays may be prioritizing. He posted an .818 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, slashing .272/.341/.477 in 170 plate appearances against them. In games against left-handed starters in 2026, Vilade hit .309/.386/.530 with eight homers and a .916 OPS.
Still, there’s a real argument for Simpson staying in the lineup. He was a major reason Tampa Bay reached this point, and his bat-to-ball profile stands out. His contact percentage was 46.1%, one of the highest marks in the league, and he ranked in the top 1% in swing-and-miss rate at 10.4% and strikeout rate at 7.9% across baseball.
Even with those numbers, the postseason calculus can shift fast. A high average and elite contact skills can matter, but in October the Rays may decide that one swing matters more than a string of singles.
That’s where players like Vilade, Victor Mesa Jr. and Cedric Mullins enter the picture. All three have the kind of power that can change a game instantly, and that may be the edge Tampa Bay is chasing after dropping Game 1 to Cleveland.
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