The San Antonio Spurs still look built to win big, but the first week of the season already hinted at how messy the path can get. They opened with a 116-104 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that kind of night is exactly why any “bold” Spurs prediction has to come with a warning label.
This is a roster led by Victor Wembanyama, with Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox in the mix, plus veteran Tobias Harris and a pair of rookies who upgrade the back end. The ceiling is obvious.
The margin for error is shrinking.
One immediate forecast: the Spurs are going to take some early punches. With lineup changes still being sorted out and Harris expected back from a minor injury before long, San Antonio should pile up a few losses in the first stretch of the season and reach double-digit defeats before Jan. 3, the same point last year when they logged their 10th loss.
That said, the comparison to last season only goes so far. This group could still rip through 25 wins in its first 35 games again.
The difference is the standard. The Spurs are no longer just chasing the West’s elite - they’ve already passed most of them, with Oklahoma City maybe the lone exception.
The biggest on-court question remains how the three star guards fit together. Mitch Johnson made the call in preseason to start Harper without bumping Fox or Castle, even though the three rarely shared the floor last season.
They actually played as much or more together in the NBA Finals as they did before, which stands out because that was their only playoff series loss after a 62-win season. Against the Thunder, some of the rough edges were obvious.
None of the three is a great three-point shooter, and when Oklahoma City packed the paint, Castle had trouble from deep in the first half. He settled in during the third and fourth quarters, but the group looked out of sync early.
That doesn’t mean the trio can’t work. Castle, Harper and Fox will have strong stretches together, and there’s even a real chance all three are still starting when the playoffs arrive. But changes along the way would not be a surprise.
The opening loss also sets the bar for a larger season-long prediction: the Spurs can now afford only 17 more defeats if an earlier forecast is going to hold. Even after a clunky start, the bigger point remains the same.
Beating Oklahoma City on opening night was always a tough ask, especially against a team two years removed from an NBA championship and sitting atop the West in each of the last three seasons. San Antonio, though, is good enough to handle the rest for now.
Where they land in April is a different question entirely.
And looking even further ahead, the final call is a strong one: a healthy Spurs team will win 64 games in 2026-2027, but won’t finish with the NBA’s best record.
In Other News...
Spurs Just Got Burned By An NBA Problem Fans Hate
The frustration around NBA officiating has been simmering for a while, and Spurs fans have had plenty of reason to notice it. When a game turns into a debate about traveling violations and the way fouls are called for offensive players, it can leave viewers feeling like the rules only apply when they are convenient. Around the league, players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LaMelo Ball have become part of that conversation, while San Antonio has had its own close look at how inconsistent enforcement can shape what happens on the floor.
For the Spurs, the issue hits especially hard because it touches the kind of young, developing roster that needs clear standards as much as anything else. Dylan Harper and Devin Vassell are part of a team trying to build rhythm and trust possession by possession, and constant uncertainty about what will and will not be called only adds to the irritation. The broader debate is not going away anytime soon, and for San Antonio, it is another reminder that the most basic parts of the game still do not always feel settled. [Read more 🡒]
Spurs Fans Have Seen This NBA Officiating Problem For Too Long
A familiar frustration has followed the league into another stretch of games, and Spurs fans know the feeling well. In recent nights, the conversation has centered on the same old complaints about NBA officiating: traveling violations that seem to go uncalled, defenders being whistled for barely any contact, and a general sense that the standard changes from game to game. Players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LaMelo Ball, Dylan Harper and Devin Vassell have all been part of the broader discussion, which has only added fuel to the outrage.
For San Antonio, the annoyance is less about one isolated sequence than the pattern itself. Fans have seen these debates before, and the concern is not just about a missed call here or there, but about how consistently the rules are enforced when the game gets tight and the physicality rises. Until the league gives supporters a clearer sense of where the line is, every questionable whistle will keep landing with the same old mix of disbelief and exasperation. [Read more 🡒]
Victor Wembanyama Just Got A Brutal Reality Check From An NBA Legend
Victor Wembanyamas first game of the season gave the Spurs plenty to like on the defensive end, with the young star still impacting possessions through rebounds and blocks even as his shot deserted him. It was enough to keep the opener from turning into a total concern in San Antonio, but not enough to quiet the conversation around how much his offseason work has actually sharpened the rest of his game.
Carmelo Anthony helped push that skepticism into the spotlight, questioning whether the training Wembanyama did in the offseason will show up consistently when the games start counting. Wembanyama had worked with Hakeem Olajuwon and even added rugby drills to his regimen, but Anthony made clear he wants to see whether those efforts translate over the course of the season, which is the real test the Spurs are now facing. [Read more 🡒]