The Packers have reached the point where this matchup almost feels mandatory. Tampa Bay has handed Green Bay some ugly memories in recent seasons, and now the Buccaneers come in winless, down Baker Mayfield, and leaning on undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for his first NFL start.
That alone changes the shape of Week 4. Green Bay does not have a clean bill of health or a clean slate of its own, but this is still the kind of game the Packers have to find a way to take. With Mayfield sidelined by a right thumb injury, Tampa Bay’s offense will look very different, and the Packers will be staring at a quarterback with almost no regular-season tape.
On Green Bay’s side, the offensive line picture is suddenly in flux. Aaron Banks, dealing with knee and toe issues, and Jacob Monk, with a quadricep injury, both missed practice Wednesday.
That opens the door for the Packers’ new arrivals, with Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler in position to step in at left and right guard. Zeitler is expected to start at right guard once he’s ready, and Tomlinson should fit at left guard if Banks can’t go.
Mekhi Becton, who is on the practice squad, is also in the mix as a backup at guard and tackle.
The shuffle could push Jacob Monk, Donovan Jennings, and Jager Burton further down the depth chart. It also means Green Bay may have to move fast with its new-look front, since Tomlinson and Zeitler might not get much time to build up their practice reps before Sunday.
There are injury questions on the other side of the ball too. Edge rusher Lukas Van Ness, who has been one of the bright spots for Green Bay’s defense, did not practice Wednesday because of a shoulder injury.
Karl Brooks missed practice with an illness, while Warren Brinson was limited as he continues to work back from a calf and groin issue that has kept him out since pregame warmups before the Packers’ second preseason game. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, dealing with a shoulder and concussion, at least took a limited step forward.
Tampa Bay’s report is just as crowded. Along with Mayfield, linebacker Rueben Bain Jr., linebacker Yaya Diaby, wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr., tight end Ko Kieft, and defensive lineman Rakeem Nuñez-Roche all sat out Wednesday. Running back Bucky Irving was limited.
Then there’s the weather, which could add another wrinkle. AccuWeather’s early forecast calls for about 90 degrees in Tampa Bay on Sunday, with a 57 percent chance of precipitation in the afternoon and the possibility of thunderstorms. A delay is very much on the table.
The quarterback switch is the biggest tactical twist. Green Bay had spent part of its preparation on Baker Mayfield before his thumb injury changed everything late in Tampa Bay’s loss to Minnesota.
Now Jonathan Gannon has to get his defense ready for Daniels, and there isn’t much to go on. The rookie has only three passes’ worth of regular-season film, but he does bring clear rushing ability, with 843 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Kansas.
Daniels also showed some arm talent in the preseason, where he led two game-winning drives and climbed from the bottom of the depth chart to become Tampa Bay’s surprising QB2. For a player making his first career start, he has very little to lose.
The prediction here is Packers 20, Buccaneers 14. It may not be clean.
It may not be pretty. Green Bay’s line changes will need time to settle in.
But this is the kind of game the Packers should be able to control, especially if the defense can create turnovers and set up short fields for the offense.
Last week offered a reminder that Daniels can be forced into mistakes, too. He attempted only three passes against the Vikings, and one was picked off by cornerback Isaiah Rodgers.
The Packers don’t need style points. They just need the win.
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