Florida State and Alabama meet again, but the two teams are arriving in Tuscaloosa from very different places than they were a year ago.
Last season, Alabama went into the opener at Florida State as a 14-point favorite and left with a 31-17 loss in Tallahassee. That game gave Seminoles fans a short-lived jolt of optimism. Since then, both programs have taken a hard turn back toward the middle of the national conversation, and this rematch has a very different feel.
Florida State is 1-1 after a 27-24 loss to SMU on Sept. 7, a game in which the Seminoles could not cash in on four turnovers by the Mustangs. New quarterback Ashton Daniels has not yet gotten much going with receivers Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy, and the pressure on coach Mike Norvell is growing after athletic director Michael Alford said earlier this week that Norvell needs to deliver again or risk getting fired.
Alabama, meanwhile, is back inside the top 10 and coming off a College Football Playoff berth. The Crimson Tide are 2-0 with two lopsided wins, including a 45-17 road rout of Kentucky.
Quarterback Keelon Russell has guided the offense, while Kalen DeBoer’s defense made a statement against the Wildcats by holding them to 63 rushing yards. That’s a troubling matchup for a Florida State offense that runs through Ousmane Kromah and company.
The latest odds for FSU vs. Alabama were provided by BetMGM as of Friday, Sept. 18.
Around the college football betting world, the predictions lean heavily toward Alabama.
Liam Rooney of the Tallahassee Democrat has Alabama 35, FSU 13. “Keelon Russell is a challenge for the Seminoles to solve, and given the recent performances from the defense, it might be a breakout game for the first-year starter. I expect FSU to have more success running the football than ECU and Kentucky did, but it won't be enough.”
Trey Rowland of Noles247 is even higher on the Tide, picking Alabama 41, FSU 20. “Really tough situation for FSU here this week.
Tough opponent. Lackluster play on offense.
Bad third down defense. Off-field noise.
You haven't won a road game since the Clinton Administration. Etc etc.
Bad combination of factors for a team this early in the season.”
Pete Fiutak of College Football News also sees Alabama pulling away, going with Alabama 37, FSU 13. “It’s not like there’s a massive revenge factor here - losing to Florida State wouldn’t be like dropping a big game to Auburn, or anything - but Alabama certainly will see this game as a measuring stick.”
Not everyone is on the same side, though. Peter Dewey of SI.com is taking FSU plus the points, arguing that Alabama matches up well with Florida State but that Russell’s passing struggles could matter here. He also pointed to SMU’s ability to hang around in Week 1 despite having Kevin Jennings at quarterback.
How to watch FSU vs Alabama
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Mike Norvells tenure at Florida State has reached a place nobody in Tallahassee expected when he signed that massive extension last year. He is in his seventh season with the Seminoles and carries a 39-35 record, while the deal he put pen to paper on runs through 2031 and pays in the neighborhood of $10 million to $11 million annually. The timing of the conversation around his future is made even trickier by the fact that Florida State has already moved on from athletic director Michael Alford, the man who signed off on the extension.
Now the noise around Norvell has only gotten louder, fueled in part by recent on-field frustration and even a viral photo of a moving truck at his home. If Florida State were to pull the plug after the upcoming game against Alabama, the financial hit would be staggering, with a buyout around $48 million, among the largest in college football history. That figure could drop if Norvell lands another job, but for a fan base already uneasy, the size of the bill is exactly the kind of detail that makes this situation feel more complicated by the day. [Read more 🡒]
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The problem never let up on the other side of the ball, where Alabama's quarterback was sharp and efficient, hitting 23 of 30 throws for 320 yards, three touchdown passes and another score on the ground. Florida State's three interceptions proved costly throughout the night, and even with the offense showing it can move, the Seminoles were left with the same lingering concern that kept every comeback attempt from gaining real traction. [Read more 🡒]