Week 7 turned the College Football Playoff race into a mess, but not the kind that wiped everybody out. The weekend had all the ingredients for total wreckage - the news of CFP expansion before Saturday, then five of the top seven teams in the AP poll losing for the first time ever - yet only a small group of teams saw their postseason dreams end completely. A lot more programs are now hanging on by a thread, but the tiebreakers kept several lives on the table.
The American remains crowded enough that 14 of its 17 teams still have two or fewer conference losses, which keeps automatic-bid hopes alive for a surprising number of schools. That’s why teams like Duke, Pitt and Virginia are still in the conversation for Charlotte, even if the path is narrow and depends on chaos elsewhere.
In the Big 12, the picture looks even stranger: three of the nation’s five undefeated teams live there, and four league teams sit in the top 15. BYU’s nonconference win over Notre Dame only strengthened that case, especially with the Cougars and Texas Tech not meeting in the regular season.
That opens the door for the Big 12 to land two teams in the field no matter what happens in the title game.
Some contenders, though, took hits they may never recover from. Arizona State’s defense has been a disaster, and Kenny Dillingham’s team has already watched its return trip to the Big 12 title game slip away before Halloween.
The Sun Devils have given up 125 points in three conference games and are now 3-3 overall. Cincinnati is in rough shape too after blowing a game in which it piled up 622 yards and 42 points on offense; that loss likely ended any realistic playoff path.
The Big Ten, meanwhile, stayed relatively calm even in a wild national weekend. Eleven teams in the league still have two or fewer losses, and the list of possible Indianapolis contenders remains long. Indiana’s run finally ended against Ohio State, but only by the slimmest of margins.
The SEC did what it usually does: produce more questions than answers while reminding everybody how brutal the league can be. Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri and Texas all lost, and while none of those defeats were instantly fatal, each one left playoff hopes looking fragile. At the same time, the Big 12 and Big Ten appear to have more legitimate 12-team field candidates than expected, which may be part of why the SEC has warmed to the idea of a 24-team playoff.
Oklahoma took another damaging blow at home against Kentucky, and John Mateer “went full John Mateer” in that loss. The Sooners’ nonconference defeat to Michigan has already undercut their at-large case, and even winning out may not be enough given the tiebreaker damage. That result also raised bigger questions around the program that Brent Venables and his new athletic director will have to confront if more losses pile up.
Notre Dame’s defeat at BYU carried major weight too. Fans who made the trip to Provo, along with those watching from home, had plenty to gripe about after the late finish.
More importantly, that loss makes the game against Miami in South Bend next month feel like a must-win from a CFP standpoint. If the Irish don’t beat the Hurricanes, they could finish without a single Top 25 win.
There was movement in the American off the field as James Madison’s future move into the league was announced, but the on-field picture was less encouraging. Memphis is still alive to win the conference, though the Tigers probably need to win out and look convincing to stay in the Group of 6 conversation after a bizarre loss at Tulane in which they simply could not protect the football. UTSA, on the other hand, may have strengthened its claim as the team to beat after beating Navy.
Elsewhere in the Group of 6 picture, Zach Kittley’s Owls are clearly improved and should get to a bowl for the first time since 2020, but their blowout loss to Army probably shut the door on any lingering CFP hopes. The Broncos also stayed in the mix despite a fourth-quarter wobble that made the game against Central Michigan much tighter than it should have been. They completed only five passes in a performance that looked more like a service academy game, and a crucial trip to Toledo could decide a spot in Detroit.
The Mountain West still has a lot of moving parts, and Week 7 did not make that any easier to sort out. New Mexico escaped with a close win over Hawai‘i, Air Force pulled off a stunning fourth-quarter comeback to beat UNLV, and the Bison found unusual ways to score in order to hold off Nevada. The point is simple: staying alive is still staying alive.
The Pac-12 had a quieter Saturday. Oregon State handled Washington State comfortably, and the Broncos were off. Even so, everything points to at least two meetings next month between the Beavers and one of the league’s most notable newcomers, with plenty of CFP implications hanging over both games.
James Madison had one of the week’s biggest stretches of momentum. The Dukes announced their move to the American, tightened their grip on the Sun Belt East with a big win over Georgia State and kept applying pressure in the Group of 6 race. Georgia State’s 49-22 loss showed how far the Panthers still have to go, but just being part of this CFP conversation in mid-October says plenty about the turnaround in Atlanta in 2026.
In Other News...
Cincinnati's New Frontcourt Boost Comes With One Major Catch
Cincinnati added another frontcourt piece for next season with Akron forward Amani Lyles committing to the Bearcats, giving the roster a boost as it continues to take shape. Lyles arrives after spending his previous season with the Zips, and his addition gives Cincinnati another option up front as the program looks to build out depth for the year ahead.
The wrinkle is that Lyles status is tied to an Ohio executive order from Gov. Mike DeWine that granted certain players, including Lyles and MJ Collins, a fifth year of eligibility. The NCAA is challenging that order in federal court, which means the question of whether Lyles can suit up as planned may not be settled before the season begins. [Read more 🡒]
Cincinnati Walks Into A Brutal Texas Tech Test This Week
Texas Tech has found a rhythm on offense at just the right time, and Cincinnati is the next team walking into the exam. JKoby Williams has been a steady part of that surge, while the Red Raiders have leaned on a defense that has tightened up against the run and created problems for opponents at every level. For the Bearcats, the challenge is not just keeping pace, but dealing with a team that has started to look more complete on both sides of the ball.
Will Hammonds emergence at quarterback has been one of the biggest reasons Texas Tech looks so different now than it did earlier in the season. After a year shaped by rehab and offseason questions, he has settled in and shown real comfort in recent games, which only raises the degree of difficulty for Cincinnati. Add in a linebacker group that has been a problem for opposing offenses, and this matchup starts to feel less like a test and more like a survival exercise for the Bearcats. [Read more 🡒]
Bearcats Face A Brutal Homecoming Test They Desperately Need To Survive
Homecoming brings a difficult stage for Cincinnati, which is set to welcome No. 8 Texas Tech in a game that carries real weight beyond the usual pageantry. The Bearcats are trying to steady themselves after back-to-back losses, and the task gets even tougher against a Red Raiders team that has been efficient on both sides of the ball. With both programs showing strong numbers on the ground and through the air, Cincinnati knows this one will demand a clean performance from the start.
The challenge for the Bearcats is not just the ranking next to Texas Techs name, but the margin for error that shrinks when an opponent is this complete. Cincinnatis coaches and players have emphasized the need for a disciplined game plan and sharp execution, which is the only way to stay within striking distance against a top-10 team. For a home crowd expecting a celebratory weekend, the Bearcats now face a test of whether they can turn that energy into something more urgent. [Read more 🡒]