The Braves are heading toward an offseason that could move fast, then stop cold.
A lockout is considered extremely likely to begin at the start of December, and that could create a short, frantic window for free-agent signings and trades before everything gets put on ice. In that sense, this winter may feel a little like another trade deadline. The uncertainty around the new CBA could also make some teams hesitant, but Atlanta still has its own payroll puzzle to solve.
For the Braves, the challenge is not just finding the right players. It’s figuring out how much room there will actually be to spend once the 2027 books come into focus. And right now, the answer is murky.
The estimated guaranteed money already on Atlanta’s 2027 payroll comes out to $152,616,667, with an estimated luxury tax payroll of $172,783,333. Chris Sale sits at the top of the list at $27 million, followed by Austin Riley at $21.2 million and Matt Olson at $21 million.
Riley’s deal is the kind of contract that doesn’t really invite much debate. Beyond that, though, there are a few numbers the Braves could try to shed if they decide to reshape the roster.
Jurickson Profar is slated to make $14 million in 2027, Spencer Strider is set for $12.5 million a year for the next few seasons, and Reynaldo Lopez is due $10 million next season. Profar is the biggest obvious target on that front, while Strider’s name has already surfaced in trade discussion before, and Lopez could be viewed as a movable piece if his shoulder holds up.
The two contract options are easy to project. Ronald Acuña Jr. at $17 million and Ozzie Albies at $7 million both look like no-brainers, even with Albies’ reduced production. If needed, either deal would also be easy to move.
Then comes the list of pending free agents, and that’s where the Braves’ flexibility gets a lot more complicated than it first appears.
Ha-Seong Kim is making $20 million, Raisel Iglesias $16 million, Mauricio Dubon $6.1 million, Martin Perez $3.05 million, Tyler Mahle $10 million, Dominic Smith $1.25 million, Kyle Farmer $1.25 million, Brent Suter $1.25 million, Joe Jimenez $8.67 million, and Lane Thomas $5.25 million.
On paper, that’s more than $72 million coming off the books. In practice, Atlanta would also be losing both of its shortstops, 40% of its starting rotation, including its second-best starter, its closer, and several useful role players. That kind of turnover doesn’t come free in any real sense.
Some of those spots will have to be filled externally, and names like Tyler Mahle, Mauricio Dubon, and Martin Perez could end up costing more than the players they replace. Joe Jimenez stands out as a contract the Braves have already been carrying without much return, since knee trouble has kept him from contributing for two straight seasons. And Ha-Seong Kim’s $20 million price tag for 2026 sounds like a number Atlanta could improve on.
The arbitration picture is much cleaner.
Dylan Lee, Joey Wentz, and Bryce Elder are the Braves’ arbitration-eligible players for 2027. Lee looks like an easy offer.
Elder also seems likely to return if his knee is in good shape, especially since he would provide cheap rotation depth the Braves already know. Wentz is the wild card, but he has not been a real part of the plan for some time and has missed the entire season with a torn ACL, so a non-tender would not be a surprise if Atlanta needs to trim payroll.
Even with all that, the biggest issue may be that nobody knows exactly what the financial landscape will look like once the new CBA is in place. A salary cap, a salary floor, or changes to league minimums and arbitration could all change the math. That makes any 2027 projection a moving target.
There is also the tax bill the Braves are expected to face as a publicly traded company, which is likely to be more than $20 million. Some investors are already pushing for the team to be sold or at least taken private again, believing that the tax could limit what the club can spend.
So the cleanest answer is probably the simplest one: the Braves should still land in the top 10 in payroll once everything settles. They are too good and too profitable to drift much lower than that. But for now, the exact amount of room they’ll have to work with is more uncertain than it has been in a long time.
In Other News...
Braves Fans Got A Clearer Look At Who Helped Gwinnett Matter
The Gwinnett Stripers finished their minor league season at 76-73, giving Braves followers a useful look at a farm club that stayed relevant deep into the summer. Gwinnett was one of just two Atlanta affiliates to post a winning record in 2026, and that mattered because the Stripers were often the organizations most visible proving ground for players moving up, moving through, or trying to get back on track.
Brewer Hicklen and Owen Murphy ended up taking the top honors, with Hicklen earning hitter of the year after a .302 season with 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and Murphy named pitcher of the year after working to a 3.07 ERA with 94 strikeouts. The broader picture was just as encouraging for Atlanta, with several other contributors turning in notable seasons and a number of major leaguers passing through Gwinnett along the way, giving Braves fans a clearer sense of who helped keep the affiliate mattering. [Read more 🡒]
Walt Weiss Built A Braves Case Voters May Be Ignoring
The Braves got back to the top of the division in 2026 under first-year manager Walt Weiss, and the case for his work is easy to see when you look at the circumstances surrounding the season. Atlanta had to navigate major injuries to key players and plenty of strain on the starting rotation, yet still finished with 92 wins and its first division title since 2023.
Pat Murphy is still the favorite for NL Manager of the Year, but Weiss has built a resume that deserves more attention than it has gotten. First-year manager, depleted roster, division crown, 92 wins - it adds up to a strong argument for voters who tend to reward the obvious success stories and overlook the steady job behind them. [Read more 🡒]
Robert Suarez Has Become A Huge Braves October Decision
Robert Suarez took another step back toward Atlanta on Sunday, turning in a scoreless inning for Gwinnett and flashing the kind of velocity the Braves have been waiting to see as he works his way back from injury. With the minor-league season now over, the clubs next move is more about timing and trust than pure rehab, and general manager Alex Anthopoulos said Suarez is likely to be activated soon, perhaps by midweek.
For the Braves, the question is whether that means enough to make him part of the postseason picture. October roster spots are hard to earn this late in the process, especially for a reliever still proving his body is ready, and Suarezs return will force the front office and coaching staff to weigh upside against certainty as they settle on the group they want for the postseason. [Read more 🡒]